The good news Wednesday morning is that the gusty winds have subsided. That brought inversions overnight with temperatures in the teens this morning (even a few single digits) at lake level and 30s on the mountain tops. 

The other good news is the weather looks nice through the weekend with mostly sunny skies and high rebounding into the 40s. That's bad news though if you are looking for new snow. High pressure will dominate through the weekend keeping us in a continued dry pattern.

Next Week:

We have been tracking a pattern shift for the week of the 31st for a while now. It never looked that impressive, but the models were consistent the last few weeks in showing a pattern that could bring a weak storm or two.

Then yesterday (Tuesday) the models started to shift ever so slightly, especially on a global scale, but just enough to diminish our chances of seeing precipitation next week. The GFS model has joined the other models today in showing the trough digging south just to our east now on Monday instead of a bit farther west into CA.

That slight shift east could be enough to keep most of the precipitation with the Monday system mainly to our north and east. The latest model runs are in agreement on little if any precipitation Monday into Monday night.

Gusty winds, some clouds, and colder temperatures for Monday are a better bet than any precip as of this morning, but a few rain & snow showers are still possible. Highs dropping into the 30s.

It should remain colder for most of next week with the trough sitting just to our east through Thursday.

Highs may only be in the 20s for the upper mountains by Tuesday & Wednesday and 30s for lake level. But the next system or two dropping into the trough now look to remain to our north and east into the Pacific NW and the Rockies. So we could see mostly sunny skies Tuesday through the end of next week even though it should be colder.

No changes to the long-range as we were only expecting the pattern to open up to weak systems for 3 or 4 days next week with the trough digging into the West. The long-range models still show high-pressure building in closer to the West Coast by the end of next week into the 2nd week of February.

That will likely shift the storm track even farther north and east, with most of the precipitation and snow falling in the Rockies and missing the entire West Coast into the 2nd week of February. The latest model runs including the GFS model are completely dry for the Sierra after Monday through at least the 11th, which is as far as the model goes out.

Fantasy Range:

Some of the long-range models try to shift the ridge off the coast slightly west during the 2nd week of February. That could allow weak systems to move down from the north or some inside sliders. Better chances for shots of colder air and wind than precipitation in that pattern. Overall looking dry through the 1st half of February.

I'm still looking for signs of a shift in the pattern back to stormy. The MJO is no help as it is in the circle of death. The forecasts are mixed between the active phase reemerging over the Indian Ocean which could help shift our pattern later in the month, or over the Maritime Continent which likely is of no help.

The PNA teleconnection pattern forecasts were showing us heading into a negative PNA pattern (western trough) next week and beyond, and now show a quick dip with the trough early next week and then back to neutral (ridge near the coast & trough farther east) into the 2nd week of February.

(You can click on the MJO & PNA links above to read about them in our Learn section)

I'll continue to watch the long-range for any signs of a change that bring any kind of confidence. Right now we seem to just be hoping that the pattern shifts as the seasons start to shift later in February and into March. But that could change so we'll keep watching.

Is the Season Over?:

If you have lived here more than a few years you know the answer is of course NO. The ski season isn't even halfway over until the 1st weekend in February for most ski areas. So we aren't even halfway through the season yet. Always premature to call an end to the seasons until we get into March and have an idea what the last 3rd of the season will bring. March is our 2nd snowiest month on average!

If we end January with no more snow, which it looks like we will, we will still be around 139% of average snowfall to date for 1/31, and officially at the Snow Lab at 148% of average for the date thanks to a huge December. If we see no more snow this season we won't fall below average until March 7th!

This morning I went back to 1970 and looked at seasons with big Decembers (95+ inches of snow) and well below average Januarys (<20 inches of snow). I came up with 5 seasons. Here is a graph of those seasons.

3 of the 5 ended up below average for the season. 2002-03 we ended up near average just because of a record April with 124" of snow. 2010-11 most of us remember. We had a 6-week dry spell like we are seeing this season, then in mid-February, it started snowing and continued snowing into June.

Looking at all 5 seasons averaged together, they saw near to slightly above average snowfall the rest of the season after a dry January.

Those seasons were a mixture of El Ninos, La Ninas, & ENSO neutral. They were also a mix of East/West QBO patterns & Cold/Warm PDO patterns. So no definitive correlation.

Looking at La Nina seasons like this one, which has been borderline weak/moderate, the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) seems to have the biggest correlation historically. During weak/moderate La Nina seasons, during a cold PDO pattern we average 120%/106% of average snowfall respectively & during a warm PDO pattern 84%/94% of average snowfall.

The forecast for this season we put out in the fall was for near to just below average snowfall, leaning towards average with the cold PDO signal we were seeing. Cold water in the northeast Pacific and the classic cold PDO horseshoe around the north/east/south sides of the warm tongue of water emerging from the Western Pacific.

The latest readings still had us in a cold PDO pattern at the end of December, but the warm water in the Western Pacific has pushed east through January.

Historically seasons with big snow in December and low snow in January pick back up in February and March, and on average La Nina seasons increase in snowfall in February and March, with March historically being the snowiest month on average.

There is always the 2012-13 season that never saw a return of big storms after a big December, and on the flip side, there's the 2010-11 season that never saw an end to storms after mid-February. The 2002-03 season reminds us we can see over 100" in April when all hope for any more big storms seems completely lost.

It is only January 26th, the season isn't halfway over until 11 days from now, we won't dip below average for snowfall until March 7th (longer if we see any snow before then) & in La Nina seasons March is the snowiest month on average. So right now the season is nowhere near over. 2012-13 could repeat but that was an anomaly year. 

It's a frustrating month, especially with the 2-week outlook still looking dry. But keep the faith. It will snow again. Hopefully, we will see a classic La Nina comeback later in February into March. Pray for snow!

Stay tuned...BA

A New Episode of The Flakes Podcast is out!

This week we sit down with The Digital Horseman from Ski Utah to talk skiing & snow. Then we go through the 5-day snowfall forecasts for each ski region, and discuss the long-range weather outlook.

Available on most podcast platforms...