Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 1 year ago December 2, 2022

1-2 Feet of Fresh, Warmer Storm Sat - Sun...

Summary

Mostly sunny and cold Friday. The next storm moves in by Saturday afternoon and lasts into Monday before clearing. Snow levels will fluctuate. Then we could see a break Tue-Thu. The next storm moves in next Friday the 9th.

Short Term Forecast

The storm moved through on Thursday and dropped 1-2 feet of new snow on most locations around the Tahoe basin as we expected. (still waiting on a few mountains to report for some reason)

reports

The report from Diamond Peak seems low from the reports I received and Mt. Rose nearby getting 19. Sierra at Tahoe seems really high from the reports I received. So we'll have to see if they adjust the reports later today.

The official report from the snow lab is 20 inches of new snow with 1.6 inches of liquid. That's only 12:1 snow:liquid ratio. My final forecast had a model average of 1.8 inches with snow ratios closer to 14:1 for the snow lab and 15:1 or better for the upper mountains. 

The storm was cold enough for snow ratios higher than 12:1 so the winds gusting up to 120+ mph may have smashed together the flakes more than average which we have theorized can lower the snow ratios in high winds events. The flakes fall apart and settle more on the ground with less fluff.

winds

Also, snow blows off the peaks in high wind storms and we sometimes see more snow reported at the base of mountains than the top, as we saw with Sugar Bowl this storm. They only reported 18" up top when the Snow Lab down the street near their base elevation reported 20" in a more wind-protected spot.

The total precip amounts being a couple of tenths lower than the average model forecast would lower the high-end snowfall a couple of inches, and the winds may be the other cause that reports are on the lower end or a few inches below for some mountains. Here is my forecaster report card for this storm.

variance

But who's complaining about 1-2 feet of fresh snow in early December? Not me!

Friday:

It is a beautiful morning with fresh snow on the ground at the ski resorts. Here is a look at the base of Palisades Tahoe this morning!

pt base

Taking a look from High Camp we can see the sun coming out over the lake Friday morning as the winds have dropped off. 

high camp

It's also cold with highs in the 20s making for a beautiful powder day!

Saturday - Monday Storm:

We can see the closed low spinning down the coast Friday morning that will be off the coast Saturday, and we can see the moisture off the southern CA coast that will get drawn northward into the Sierra.

satellite

Our forecast radar is showing the moisture reaching the Sierra, at least west of the lake up along the crest, by late morning Saturday. It may not fill in and start to spill into the basin until the afternoon.

forecast radar

Highs in the 30s Saturday with ridgetop winds from the southwest increasing to 60+ mph. That could affect some upper mountain lift operations.

We are going to have to deal with snow level issues for the lower elevations with the warmer moisture being drawn in from the southwest Saturday into Saturday night. I'm also not confident about how well the moisture spills over the crest to the east side of the basin until we see more forcing Sunday as the closed low moves inland.

Snow levels on the latest model runs are around 6500-7000 ft. Saturday through Saturday night. That is above lake level by a few hundred feet or more. Heavier precipitation bands could drag them a few hundred feet lower than that, and lulls with drizzle could bring them a few hundred feet higher. Above 7000 ft. we should see mostly snow on the mountains.

Sunday colder air starts to work in as the colder closed low off the coast begins to move inland and it could take until Monday evening for it to finally move east of the region. That could keep snow showers going into the day on Monday but they should be scattered and lighter.

Snow levels should drop below 6000 ft. or below lake level on Sunday and then below 5000 ft. Sunday night into Monday. That is when we expect snow to accumulate at lake level. Ridgetop winds gusting up to 70+ mph from the southwest Sunday and then falling off for Monday. Highs in the 30s at lake level and 20s for the upper mountains.

The total model average hasn't changed from Thursday and is still around 2.3 inches along the crest with up to 2 inches on the high end to the east side of the lake, depending on spillover. The drier models like the ICON have only up to 1.4 inches along the crest as it keeps the heaviest precip to our south.

icon

But most models show up to 2+ inches and the wettest this morning is the GFS with up to 2.8 inches. Here is a look at the WPC's blended model forecast through Monday.

wpc

With the snow levels fluctuating and starting high, I have much less snowfall in the forecast for lake level as compared to the mountains above 7000 ft. For the mountains, the forecast hasn't changed much. Here is my updated snowfall forecast for the 48-60 hour storm. 

snowfall

Please don't look for those totals until Tuesday! Don't call me on on Twitter on Sunday morning when it may still be raining at your house...

Extended Forecast

Tuesday through Thursday we are still expecting mostly sunny skies with lighter winds and cold temperatures. Highs in the 30s at lake level and 20s for the upper mountains. That should keep the snow in good condition with beautiful skiing weather next week.

The next storm is still expected to move in sometime next Friday the 9th into Saturday the 10th.

next storm

We will continue to watch the trends on this storm as it gets closer...

Fantasy Range:

Day 10 and beyond, the 11th of December onward, the forecast models are struggling. With the ridge over Greenland and the strong -NAO pattern they want to put the trough in the east and a ridge in the West, but they are also trying to put a trough near the West Coast with the ridge near Aleutians.

trough

It may be a battle in the pattern for where the troughs are set up and where the storm track goes through mid-December. We'll continue to watch the trends.

Stay tuned...BA

Announcements

Fresh Tracks!

On this week's episode, The Flakes are melting as we discuss all the snow coming to the West this week!

Available on most podcast platforms...

About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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