Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 1 year ago December 4, 2022

Waves of Snow Showers Sunday - Monday...

Summary

Waves of snow showers moving through Sunday and Monday along with gusty winds. Clearing Tuesday with mostly sunny skies Wed-Thu. The next storm could move in Friday and another is possible behind that for next Saturday the 10th.

Short Term Forecast

The warm part of the storm pretty performed as expected Saturday into Saturday night. We did see snow levels dip below 7000 ft. at times Saturday, especially under heavier bands near Donner Pass, but overall snow levels stayed high until colder air moved in after midnight as expected and lowered them to lake level.

My forecast was for 7-18" by 5 AM Sunday on the mountains above 7000 ft. and 0-3" at lake level. At lake level reports so far of 1-4" as of Sunday morning. The ski areas are reporting 5-18" on the upper mountains and the ones reporting to the base are reporting 3-8" depending on elevation. So no real surprises with the storm so far.

reports

Still waiting on 2 mountains to report. The 18" at Mt. Rose is partly because of their very high base elevation above 8000 ft. and much higher than expected so far, about double my expectation, I had expected them to come in close to the Heavenly report on the east side. They are already into my forecast range for the entire storm through Monday.

Sunday - Monday Snow:

The warmer part of the storm has shifted out of the region and the colder part with the closed low off the coast is now moving through the region. The low spinning off of the coast is going to take its sweet time to move through, possibly taking up to 48 hours to clear to our east by Tuesday morning.

satellite

We are already seeing orographically enhanced snow showers firing up Sunday morning over the mountains as the air is lifted. 

radar

You can see the low spinning off the coast and that will bring waves of precipitation through the region through Monday night. We will see snow showers of varying intensities and also some breaks in snowfall throughout the period.

fcst radar

Ridgetop winds are gusting up to 60+ mph over the exposed ridges Sunday morning and could gust up to 70+ mph from the southwest through the day. Gusts could still be up to 50+ mph at times through Monday. Highs are only in the 20s on the upper mountains and 30s at lake level through Monday. 

The snow showers look to become more scattered and lighter by Monday afternoon into Monday night. Total precipitation forecasts for additional precip through Monday night on the latest model runs is 0.75 - 1.3 inches along the crest, with up to 0.8 inches to the east side of the basin. The total model average is around 1 inch of additional precip west of the lake along the crest.

Here is the NAM model forecast through Monday night which is close to the total model average. You can see this 2nd half of the storm favors the Tahoe Basin and north instead of areas to the south.

nam

Snow levels are below lake level Sunday morning and will continue to slowly lower through Monday night. They should be around 5000-6000 ft. Sunday and lowering to 4000-5000 ft. Sunday night into Monday. Monday night they could bottom out below 3000 ft. as the storm winds down and moves out. The snow showers should end by Tuesday morning.

The snow will become drier and more powdery through the rest of the storm. I'm seeing additional snowfall forecasts on our automated models of 16-26" for mountains west of the lake along the crest, and 15-29 inches on the NWS site. I'm not sure which model those automated forecasts are pulling that's giving them that high-end amount. Maybe they have a lag in timing from the precip that fell prior to Sunday morning.

Here is my updated forecast for Sunday - Monday night for the total additional snowfall possible by Tuesday morning. 5-15" on the mountains.

snowfall

Maybe I'm too low, but it's better to under-promise and over-deliver, as I tell my wife all the time. Those amounts on my forecast on top of what has fallen so far would add up close to the final forecast amounts for the storm I put out Saturday morning. Those are the numbers I get graded against on Tuesday.

Tuesday - Thursday:

The sun should come out by Tuesday afternoon, with mostly sunny skies expected through Thursday. It stays cold with highs in the 20s on the upper mountains and 30s at lake level. Lighter winds through Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon ridgetop gusts could be up to 50+ mph from the southwest ahead of the next storm.

Extended Forecast

The next storm is still on track to move through on Friday.

next storm

This storm is faster moving and looks fairly cold. I'm expecting snowfall in inches and not feet, but I'll have more details all week as it gets closer.

The long-range models continue to suggest the trough could stick around the West Coast through mid-month.

trough

That would keep the door open to more storms dropping in from the north/northwest through mid-month. 

Fantasy Range:

There are still some signs that beyond mid-month the pattern could ridge up with a drier period for the West...

ridge

...but we'll have to see what happens as we get closer. Looks like we have enough fun on our hands for now.

Stay tuned...BA

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About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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