Snowfall Reports:

The AR on Tuesday shifted to the south of the Tahoe basin by 1 PM, about 3-4 hours faster than the models were showing, but then it stalled just to the south and then drifted back to the north a bit through the evening. Here is a look at the radar image from 1 PM Monday.

And here is a look at the radar image 5 hours later at 6 PM Monday.

With the moisture shifting slightly south during the afternoon, we saw just clouds and some clearing in spots as the winds came down. I posted an afternoon update to say we would likely see several inches less than forecast for the afternoon.

In Monday morning's forecast discussion, I had a forecast for 10-20 inches Monday-Monday night. The 24-hr snowfall reports around the Tahoe basin this morning are 3-13 inches on the mountains. So we lost around 7 inches on average with the faster shift south of the AR Tuesday afternoon. To the south of the Tahoe basin where it continued to snow, we have reports of 22-40 inches!

Sunday night - Monday night storm totals so far for this storm of 9-24 inches around the Tahoe basin, and 24-54 inches south of the lake into the Central Sierra. We have 24 more hours to go before we tally up the 2.5-day storm totals Wednesday morning.

Tuesday Snow:

The next wave, rotating into CA around the bottom of the main low off the coast, increased snowfall again around 3 AM. As the initial wave was arcing into the Sierra we saw a lot of convection and lightning strikes!

A cold front is sweeping through the region this morning and behind that, there is plenty of moisture and cold air with a westerly flow off of the Pacific. The perfect setup for orographically enhanced snowfall through the day on Tuesday!

You can also see the Wednesday system right behind it moving into the left side of the frame.

Moderate- heavy snow will move through in waves through the day, with scattered snow showers into Tuesday evening. Then we could see a lull early Wednesday ahead of the next system. Here is a look at our forecast radar showing the snow Tuesday and the next system moving in Wednesday morning.

Ridgetop winds are gusting up to 90-100+ mph this morning over the ridgetops which is closing a lot of upper mountain ski lifts. Winds could continue to gust up to 70-80+ mph through most of Tuesday.

Snow levels will be below 5000 ft. through the day in the 4200-5000 ft. range, and then falling below 4000 ft. Tuesday evening. The latest model runs show up to 1.5 inches along the crest on average and up to 1 inch to the east side of the lake. Here is the European forecast for total precipitation through Tuesday night.

Snow ratios running around 11-14:1 on the mountains which is drier snow than we saw the last few days. Then increasing into Tuesday evening with powdery snow. Here is the updated snowfall forecast for Tuesday - Tuesday night. With the orograhics from taller mountains on the east side of the lake, the forecast may be a bit low for the East Side zone.

The forecast for 9-24 inches on the upper mountains would basically double the 9-24 inches being reported for the storm so far as of Tuesday morning. So storm total would be around 18-48 inches by Wednesday morning. That would land us between 0-17 inches shy of my final forecast of 35-57 inches for this storm that I posted Sunday morning. South of the Tahoe basin they may mostly still hit the forecast. We'll tally it up tomorrow!

Wednesday System:

The next storm moves to a position off the West Coast by Wednesday and directs another AR at far northern CA. The warm front moves through and reaches the Sierra Wednesday and we stay on the easter edge of the moisture streaming in to our northwest.

We could see snow showers move back in during the morning hours on Wednesday with a brief period of steadier snow into the afternoon, and then scattered showers are possible into the evening. Then the flow backs west and turns more southerly and then clears away from the northern Sierra.

Ridgetop wind gusts could be down to 30-40+ in the morning and increase to 40-50+ mph during the afternoon. Warmer air moves in through the day and into Wednesday night. Snow levels start low and then rise up to around 5500-6000 ft. by the end of the day, and above 7000 ft. Wednesday night.

Looking at the total precipitation forecast the models don't agree on how much moisture reaches the Tahoe basin, and how far south it reaches. The range is 0.2 - 1.3 inches along the crest with the highest amounts NW of the lake near Donner Summit. Looking at the European model forecast, we can see the heavy precipitation forecast for northwest CA that barely reaches the northern Sierra.

Most of the snow is expected to fall during the day when snow levels are still at lake level. Here is the updated snowfall forecast for Wednesday using the model average. It could be on the low end if the drier models are right or the high end if the wetter models are right. The best chance to get the most will be NW of the lake.

With temperatures continuing to rise Wednesday night, the snow on the ground will become wet and will start to melt for the lower elevations. Expect sticky snow by Thursday morning.

Thursday:

With the southerly flow Thursday, the temperatures are expected to warm into the 40s at lake level and 30s for the upper mountains. We could see a mixture of sun and clouds with the storms just off the coast. The winds could be breezy as well from the south, with ridgetop gusts up to 40-50+ mph for exposed ridges.

Weekend Storms:

The next system weakens as it moves in Friday. It will bring through a cold front with colder air moving in through the day and snow levels falling below lake level.

Ridgetop gusts up to 50-60+ mph from the south-southwest. Overall a weak system with only up to a few inches of snow is expected on the mountains. Then a slightly wetter system moves in on its heels Saturday.

This storm could bring moderate snowfall with snow levels below lake level. By Sunday morning it could drop around 6-12 inches of snow. Snow showers could linger Sunday but we could see a break by afternoon between storms. The winds stay breezy/gusty through the weekend with storms moving through, but they don't look to be severe.

The final weekend storm moves through Monday which is MLK day.

We could see a few-several inches of additional snowfall with this system. The forecast models are trying to split each of these systems and to drive the heaviest precip into southern CA. There is a discrepancy with each. I'm giving you the more modest forecast above.

The European model only has up to 2 inches of total precipitation along the crest over the 4-day period as it drives more of the energy down the coast into SoCal.

The GFS model has less splitting and has up to 5"+ along the crest. 

We will have to fine-tune the forecast over the next few days. 1-2 feet in total for the mountains over a 4-day period vs 3-5+ feet is a bit of a gap, lol. Overall expect snow at times Friday through Monday which could make for even slower travel through the Sierra on top of what we would already see from the holiday traffic.

Don't expect fair-weather skiing but maybe we'll sneak in a few good hours. Do expect fresh snow to keep refreshing the slops through Monday and adding to the already impressive snowfall and snowpack numbers.

The European model brings in a final storm for the 17-18th and then goes dry. The GFS model keeps storms going an extra day or two through the 20th and then goes dry. By the 21st the long-range models agree that high pressure is building over the West Coast with the storm track shifting well to our north.

We should see a drier pattern for at least several days, if not through the end of the month. We may not stay completely dry, but any storms will be much more spread out and likely much weaker if they drop down from the north-northwest.

As long as we stay on the east side of the ridge the temperatures should stay on the cooler side. If the ridge shifts east over CA or the West, we could see warmer temperatures.

Fantasy Range:

The long-range models show below-average precipitation through the 26th and towards the end of January.

After we finish with the storms sometime next week, our attention will likely quickly shift to wondering how long the drier pattern could last. Looking at some of the uber-long-range models and climate models. They seem split on whether we stay dry into the first week of February, or if the ridge backs west and the storm activity picks back up.

The active phase of the MJO is still forecast to move through the Indian Ocean through phases 2-3 the last week of January into the 1st week of February. Phase 2 is historically drier for CA and phase 3 is wetter as the ridge typically retrogrades westward away from the West Coast downstream. Some models show the convection dying in phase 2 and other continuing through phase 3, which could be part of the split on whether we stay dry or return to a wetter pattern.

That plus a lot of other variables the models look at long-range. We are also in a westerly QBO pattern this season which can help with limiting extensive dry periods. But they happen a lot mid-winter and we did expect the chance this winter in the fall seasonal forecast. I didn't even think we'd see this much snow this far into January. So we should count our blessings!

Oh, the fun of looking for when storms could return instead of when they could end...

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. Evan and I recorded a new episode of The Flakes Podcast which you can see below, in which we talk about all of the ski areas that could break 300 inches for the season this week and what we think could happen with the pattern over the next two weeks.

Fresh Tracks!

This week BA & Evan discuss The Never Ending Parade of Storms into CA, run through The New Top 10 Season-To-Date Snowfall List, catch up with Caleb & Taylor on their Snow-chasing Adventures, and talk about Where the Snow Will Fly Over the Next 2 Weeks!