Happy NFL Championships Day! We have a cold airmass and snow pushing south into CA for Sunday. As of 6 AM, the snow is starting to move in to the north side of the lake.

A steady band of snow will move through the northern Sierra from north to south through the morning.  Snow showers become more scattered into the afternoon before ending Sunday evening. The flow turns east with snow hanging on longer on the east side of the Sierra, especially to the south as the snow ends from north to south.

The southwest winds come down some this morning as they switch to the east and increase again through the afternoon as the low moves to our south. Ridgetop gusts up to 30-40+ mph. Highs are only in the 20s for Sunday with temperatures falling into the evening.

The latest model runs show slightly less total precipitation over the Tahoe basin, and slightly more to the south. Overall similar amounts are forecast from north to south and west to east over the mountains. The high-end precip forecast range is 0.3 - 0.5 inches this morning, with the average down slightly to around 0.38 inches.

The latest model runs suggest the highest totals could be closer to Heavenly than Mt. Rose with the east flow, and then near the crest down the west side of the basin. The snow ratios start high with the cold air already in place and increase into the evening as the storm winds down. Storm average of around 14-19:1 from bottom to top on the mountains. 

Here is my final forecast where I've dropped the high-end 1 inch and put the southern mountains back into their respective zones. Overall not much has changed with the forecast all week.

Someone could beat the forecast, especially on the east side of the Sierra with the easterly upslope flow. We'll tally up the totals Monday morning.

Monday:

Monday will be mostly sunny but cold with highs only in the teens on the mountains and low 20s at lake level. We will start the morning in the single digits and drop back into the single digits Monday night, with some lower valleys possibly dropping below zero.

The issue for Monday could be the gusty northeast winds continuing making it feel even colder. Ridgetop winds could be gusting up to 40-50+ mph, and like always, the east wind events tend to be stronger than the models show for some mountains, especially near Kirkwood. So some lifts could be affected Monday as well.

Tuesday - Thursday:

High pressure builds over CA through Thursday. We'll have mostly sunny skies with warming temperatures. Highs into the 30s by Tuesday and then into the 40s for the lower mountains and lake level by Wednesday into Thursday.

Lighter winds for Tuesday into Wednesday. Then increasing southwest winds for Thursday ahead of an approaching trough. Ridgetop gusts up to 40-50+ mph by afternoon, possibly affecting a few upper mountain ski lifts.

The high-pressure ridge over CA Thursday starts to shift east by Friday but the approaching trough may help to pump the ridge a bit over the Rockies. The storm trying to move into CA Friday hits the back side of the departing high and is forecast to weaken quite a bit by the time it reaches the sierra, maybe falling apart completely.

Some models like the European show a dry forecast for Friday now with just some clouds and maybe a stray shower, while other models like the GFS suggest that some light rain and snow reach the area. So we'll continue to watch the trends. 

A stronger storm moves into the West Coast by next Sunday the 5th and may have a better chance of holding together and bringing rain and snow to northern CA and the Sierra.

We'll be keeping an eye on this storm all week as it looks like our next chance to see accumulating snowfall. Here's an early look at the GFS total precipitation forecast for Friday - Monday, the 3rd-6th.

The long-range models have been suggesting a wetter period for this date range for a while now. We'll continue to fine-tune the forecast as we get closer. I'll start to look at potential snowfall by Wednesday if the storm is still forecast, and I'll look at potential snowfall for Friday starting tomorrow (Monday) if it looks like any precip will reach us.

Fantasy Range:

The period of the 7th-9th currently looks dry on the long-range models as high pressure builds back in closer to the West Coast, but then is forecast to retrograde west away from the coast slightly again by the 10th through mid-month.

That could help to drive some colder air back in from the north again. The storm track likely remains from the north down the east side of the ridge in the northeast Pacific, which is a drier storm track. We could see shots of light snow every few days or so. We'll watch to see if any storms could track off the coast a bit to pick up a bit more moisture.

Overall the long-range models continue to show a pattern that would bring below-average precipitation through mid-February, and possibly longer, but not completely dry or getting very warm. A few long-range models suggest we could become a bit wetter during the 2nd half of February. We'll see...

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. I know many of you are 49ers fans and are excited to watch the big game today. Many of you also know that I grew up near Philadelphia and I'm a big Eagles fan. I haven't been mentioning the Eagles much because I don't want to lose all of my readers, lol. Good luck to everyone today, it will be a fun afternoon of football. My wife is from Northern CA and a Niners fan, so it will be fun at our house...