Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 1 month ago February 23, 2024

Dry thru Sunday, Rain & Snow Monday...

Summary

Partly - mostly sunny through Sunday. Rain & snow showers are possible Sunday night through Monday night. Drier midweek before a cold and stormy weekend is possible for the 1st-3rd.

Short Term Forecast

We have nice weather through most of the weekend. Partly-mostly sunny skies with highs into the 40s through Sunday. Maybe near 50 degrees at lake level on Saturday.

Sunday we could see some clouds move in later in the day with a few scattered showers possibly reaching the crest by evening. Ridgetop winds from the southwest gusting up to 30-40+ mph by afternoon.

Monday Storm:

The latest model runs have been trending back toward their ideas from two days ago, where the cut-off low off the coast heads more toward southern CA by Monday and the cold front from the north digs down farther east into the Great Basin and Rockies.

monday storm

Thursday the models were suggesting that the two systems could merge closer to the Sierra. With the trend back toward that not happening, the precipitation forecasts have dropped back toward where they were two days ago and prior, which is half of what they had on Thursday for some models, but overall a drop of around half an inch, with the model average near the crest now around 0.75 inches.

wpc precip

Some model runs this morning have as little as 4 tenths of an inch on the high end near the crest and less than 3 tenths on the east side of the basin. We are still expecting a windy day on Monday with southwest winds gusting up to 80-90+ mph over the ridges. Highs in the 30s.

With the cold front dropping down farther east and the precipitation rates expected to be lighter, especially Sunday night and Monday night, the snow level forecasts have jumped up a little. We could start around 6800-7300 ft. Sunday night, dip as low as 6000-6500 ft. Monday, and finish around 5300-5800 ft. 

That means we could see some rain below 7000 ft. down to lake level Sunday night and rain could mix in near lake level on Monday. For the mountains, we could see several inches of snow by Monday night, but snow ratios may be 9-13:1 between 7000-9000 ft. which is thicker snow.

snowfall

Tuesday - Thursday:

It still looks like weak high pressure will build in by Tuesday through Thursday with a few days of partly-mostly sunny skies and highs in the 30s on the mountains and near 40 degrees at lake level. The winds will come down on Tuesday.

Extended Forecast

The long-range models still show a cold trough digging down the West Coast for the weekend of the 1st-3rd...

trough

...and a strong storm moving through.

strong storm

We will continue to watch the trends on this storm all week. If the current forecasts hold we could see snow Friday through Sunday next week, along with strong winds. Hopefully, we will be measuring the storm in feet.

Fantasy Range:

The ensemble mean models are starting to diverge by the 4th. The GFS model is showing the trough shifting east and another trough digging south with storms possibly containing through the 1st week of March into the 2nd week. But the latest European model runs are showing the trough shifting east and high pressure sticking around starting around the 4th.

ridge

The long-range models do agree that the -PNA pattern starts to shift by the end of the 1st week of March. I was expecting the cold trough pattern to relax and possibly shift to a drier or milder storm pattern the 2nd week of March, but some models now suggest that could start a few days sooner.

We'll continue to watch the trends to see not only if we will get a cold strong storm next weekend, but also if that could be a one-hit wonder.

Stay tuned...BA

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About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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