Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 1 month ago February 25, 2024

Light Rain & Snow Monday...

Summary

Mostly sunny and mild for Sunday. Rain & snow showers for Monday into Monday night. Drier for Tue-Wed. A stronger multi-day storm is possible from Thursday through Saturday. Snow showers and weaker systems are possible Sunday through the long range.

Short Term Forecast

One more day of the sun and mild temperatures for Sunday. Highs into the 40s. Ridgetop winds gusting up to 30-40+mph from the southwest by afternoon.

Monday Storm:

The latest forecast model runs have slowed the arrival of precipitation until Monday morning, reaching the crest around 4-7 AM and then spreading east. Scattered showers lingering into Monday night before tapering off by early Tuesday morning.

forecast radar

There is still some disagreement on how much moisture will be drawn this far north from the system off the coast as precipitation moves in from the north ahead of the cold front. Most of the models have trended drier, with the GFS & ICON models now both showing less than 2-tenths of an inch of total precipitation on the high-end for the storm.

The wettest models still show up to 7-tenths of an inch near the crest and 4-tenths to the east side of the basin by Tuesday morning, But the model average is down to half an inch near the crest with less to the east. There is still a chance for a bullseye of heavier precipitation somewhere.

wpc precip

Snow levels still look to hover near to just above lake level Monday between 6000-7000 ft. with any heavier showers dragging toward the lower end. Then dropping below 6000 ft. Monday night behind the cold front. Ridgetop winds on Monday will be gusting over 100 mph, so expect a lot of upper mountain lift closures.

The snowfall forecast has trended down another inch this morning due to the downward precipitation trends on most models. The GFS & ICON models only have up to 1 inch of snow on the mountains now, with the wettest models showing up to 7 inches near the crest. Here is my final forecast.

snowfall

Tuesday - Wednesday:

We will see the winds drop on Tuesday and the sun come out, with mostly sunny skies for Wednesday. Highs in the 30s for Tuesday, and then 30s on the upper mountains and 40s for the lower elevations near lake level for Wednesday.

Thursday - Saturday Storm:

The latest model runs are showing the snow from the next storm moving in by Thursday afternoon, and they have sped up the departure to Saturday night, with some scattered snow showers possible for Sunday.

thursday storm

The latest model runs are still showing some impressive precipitation totals by Sunday, around 3-5 inches near the crest on the ensemble mean models.

wet storm

That is down slightly from yesterday with the faster departure. But this is still expected to be a 3-day storm with strong winds for Thursday and Friday. Ridgetop gusts over 100 mph so expect a lot of lift closures and not good days for skiing fresh snow until Saturday when the winds look to come down.

Snow levels look to start near lake level and hover in the 5000-6000 ft. range through Friday, and then dropping lower on Satuday as colder air works in. That means we are expecting all snow at lake level as of right now. I'll have my first snowfall forecast out tomorrow, but based on the latest model runs at a 12:1 ratio we would get a general 2-5 feet of snow on the mountains.

Extended Forecast

The week of the 4th the GFS ensemble mean model is trending toward the European model's idea of the troughing to be centered farther east over the Rockies.

trough

That may keep temperatures on the cooler side and the door open to weaker storms, but they would likely take a drier track if we see any. The European ensemble mean model continues to show well below average precipitation through the period, and the GFS model now showers near normal.

dry pattern

We'll continue to watch the trends, but we have a lot of work to do over the next week tracking the strong storm headed our way for late week.

Stay tuned...BA

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About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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