I was up early this morning but I decided to try doing Facebook live on the Tahoe Weather page while looking at the models.  That slowed me down a little, and then the video disappeared after it was over.  So I wasted time trying to figure out how that happens?  I'll try to keep doing that more often in the mornings if you want to follow along.

A few adjustments to the forecast this morning.  Nothing has changed with the chance for a few snow showers tomorrow as colder air moves in.  And not much change to the forecast for a few inches of snow Wednesday night into Thursday as warm air overrides the cold air in place kicking off snow showers. 

We will have to watch that event, sometimes those snow showers can over produce.   The snow levels start to rise as the warmer air mixes in Thursday.  We could be near 7000 feet Thursday morning and 8,000 feet Thursday evening.

The heavy precip moves in Thursday night as the atmospheric river takes aim at Central CA.  The changes to the forecast are to consolidate most of the heavy precip Thursday night, and to raise snow levels a bit more.  There is good model agreement now on the storm, but the GFS is keeping most of the precip West of the crest.  

I think it is shadowing too much and there should be a good push of moisture to the East side of the lake as the Canadian and European forecast models are showing.

But you can see the totals are similar  There has been a slight shift South of the aim of the moisture Thursday night.  The latest model runs show snow levels rising as high as 9000 feet Thursday night before coming back down on Friday.  The precip looks like it will lighten on Friday, and by the time the snow levels come back down below 7000 feet Friday night it should be mostly done.

The shadowing by the GFS and the higher snow levels has changed the snowfall forecast.  The only chance for 1-2 feet of snow should be above 9000 feet.  If you look at the individual ski resort forecast pages you will see I left the snowfall in for Mt. Rose, Heavenly, and Kirkwood above 9000 feet.

The best chance for snowfall 8000 feet and below is at the start Wednesday night into Thursday, and at the end Friday afternoon into Friday night.  

The storms are lined up so that shouldn't be the end.  The next colder and weaker storm may move in Sunday bringing a few inches of snow for all elevations.

The storm for next Monday is still showing up, but it is looking like it could be wetter and pull in warm Pacific moisture like the Thursday night storm.  So we may have another high snow levels storm for Monday.

We may see another mild storm for Wednesday as well.  The forecast models are in decent agreement that we see storms Monday and again next Wednesday, but we will have to watch the details as to how much moisture they will have and what the snow levels will be. 

Beyond next Wednesday there is some disagreement as the GFS ensembles show a deep trough continuing down the west coast with the storms continuing.  The European and Canadian models show a ridge building over the Southwest and the storm track possibly bumping just to our North.

It appears we will be working overtime for a while.  It's one thing to forecast snowfall with each storm when snow levels are below lake level.  It's another to forecast each storm when trying to figure out the snow level fluctuations with each storm.

Stay tuned...BA

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Geography Key:

East

Mt. Rose, Heavenly, Diamond Peak

Central

Northstar

West

Tahoe Donner, Homewood, Bear Valley, Dodge Ridge

Crest

Boreal, Donner Ski Ranch, Sugar Bowl, Squaw, Alpine, Sierra, Kirkwood

*Boreal and Donner Ski Ranch are forecast with the "West" mountains in higher snow levels events.