The first half of this storm has been an up and down ridge of the snow levels so far, but overall they have been lower than expected.

For several days up through Tuesday we expected snow levels to drop from 9000 to 8000 feet last night, and then to 7000 feet this morning, and 6000 feet this afternoon.  Yesterday the storm looked wetter as the warm moisture feed would continue longer into today before a cold front.  So yesterday's forecast was for snow levels to stay above 8000 feet through last night, and fall to 8000 feet this morning, and then to 7000 feet late this afternoon and to 6000 feet tonight near the end of the storm.

That gave us this final forecast for snow totals by tomorrow morning...  Basically 1-3 inches for lake level, 3-6 inches for 7000 feet, 1-2 feet for 8000 feet, and 2-4 feet for 9000 feet.

The precipitation forecasts have been spot on so far with over 3 inches of precip already being reported along the crest as of 4 a.m. and we are about halfway through this storm.  But the snow level forecast has been lower than expected.  We won't know what that means for totals until we get reports, but we know it has affected them in some places already.

Yesterday around 4:30 snow levels dropped below 7000 feet on Donner Summit so it was snowing to the base of Sugar Bowl and Boreal, while snow levels were still around 8200-8500 feet South side of the lake.  I left Donner Summit at 8 p.m. and there were 3-4 inches on the ground, which means they were already in the forecast range for the storm.  Temperatures continued to fall until midnight when it was 32 degrees at 7000 feet and still snowing with several inches on the ground.

I was getting reports of snow accumulating down to 6600' near King's Beach, and I could see it was starting to accumulate snow on the web cams down to 7400' on the South side of the lake over Echo Summit.  So we had snow levels last night running around 1,000 feet or more lower than expected in yesterday's final forecast.  

Around 1 a.m. the temperatures came back up a few degrees and snow levels jumped back up to around 7500 feet on the North side of the lake, but look to be not much higher on the South side.  Just in the last half hour while writing this they have trended down again.  

But it's raining now on Donner Summit and at the base of Sugar Bowl.  There were several inches of snow at 7,000 feet before the change back to rain.

So in theory on the North side of the lake we have already beat the final forecast for 7,000 feet.  I posted yesterday evening that we may need to adjust back to the previous days forecast for 7,000-8,000 feet with the lower snow levels.  

The colder air is not working in faster from the cold front we are just seeing more cooling from lift and heavy precip dragging down snow levels than the models were showing yesterday morning.  So the snow ratios may not have increased really at the higher elevations where the snow is falling very wet and heavy.  Tuesday's forecast when we were expecting colder air to move in faster I had 5-17 inches for 7000 feet, and 1.5-3 feet for 8000 feet by Friday.

 It will be interesting to see the reports come out later this morning from the ski resorts that are all reporting somewhere in the range of 8,000 feet, some just above and some just below.  That will give us a better idea if the snow falling lower than expected overnight affected the snowfall forecast at 8,000 feet.

The moisture feed is expected to continue today with snow levels hold close to where they are this morning for most of the day.  Maybe bouncing up and down between 7,000-8,000 feet like last night.  Then then the cold front finally arrives this evening with the colder air.  Only expecting lighter showers behind the front, so the lower snowfall forecast of 1-3 inches above has not changed.

I am going to head out to the hills and try to get a some measurements between 7000-9000 feet to post on the TahoeWeather social channels.  Then later this morning I'll do an updated post once the ski resorts put out their snowfall reports.

Stay tuned...BA