A storm on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday brought significant snow to many parts of the western US, including California, Utah, and Colorado.

In Utah, Snowbird measured more than three feet of snow. People at Snowbird know to leave their windshield wipers up so that they can figure out where to start digging for their car!

This most recent storm massively increased the snowpack for most western ski areas. In mid November, Snowbird had very little snow on the ground, and now at the end of November their base depth is getting close to average for this time of year.

During the first five days of December, the deepest powder will fall in the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies, including British Columbia, Alberta, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. New Mexico will also receive another few inches, and in the northeast, precipitation will mostly fall as rain with higher-elevation snow as colder air returns for the weekend.

Looking ahead to next week, December 5-9, I am confident that the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies will continue to receive feet of snow, but I am less confident about the snowfall at other regions.

Below I am going to show two snow forecast maps. These maps both show the snow forecast from the same weather model for December 5-9. The only difference between the maps is that they were created 12 hours apart.

When two forecasts agree with each other, we have higher confidence in the forecast. Look at the northwest (upper-left corner). Both forecasts show plenty of snow for this area.

When two forecasts disagree with each other, we have lower confidence in the forecast. Look at the upper-midwest (middle) and northeast (upper-right). The forecasts are wildly different, so I have no idea how next week will turn out. There could be plenty of snow and colder air for the upper-midwest and northeast next week. Or, if the storm takes a different track, these areas could see warmer air and rain.

The temperature forecast for next week, from December 5-9, shows very cold air over the west with temperatures that could be 15-30 degrees below average. And in the northeast, temperatures could be warmer than average, but the exact rain/snow line will depend on the exact track of the storm.

The main takeaway is that snow will continue to accumulate in the western US and Canada and we are on a good trend to have a lot of terrain open by mid-to-late December. In the northeast, we will be right on the edge between rain and snow, so we’ll need a little luck in the storm track so that temperatures can stay cold enough for snow.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

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