Yesterday's system moved through but had a difficult time bringing too much in the way of organized precip.  A couple inches of snow at the tops of some resorts is about all we got.  I wasn't expecting much, but I was hoping we could at least squeeze out a bit more  Instead, it's just another tease.  

We will be under at "dirty ridge" for the next few days in which disturbances will pass to our north.  Mostly just clouds but we could see a stray shower in northern Utah on Tuesday as we get brushed by another wave.  Aside from that, the upcoming week looks devoid of anything significant.  In fact, the next ten days looks pretty darn rough for those of us hoping for snow: 

A big ol' donut hole of dryness in the southerwestern United States, including most of Utah.  The scant amount in far northern Utah is from the brush-by systems early this week.  

There is a little bit of hope in the extended forecast that maybe, just maybe, the pattern could change after mid-month.  The GFS has been stronger than the Euro with this idea, but the GFS is backing off a tad in recent runs.  Still, both models suggest that a shift is possible in the November 16-19 timeframe.  That's a long way out and only a hope and prayer at this time, but it's all we've got.  

If you're wondering, yes, this appears to be another slow start to November.  It seems it has been awhile since Utah has had a really great early season. I looked at the numbers on November 15th at Snowbird dating back to 1990 to see how much snow water equivalent was on the ground each year.  Here is what a graph of that looks like: 

I added the dot for 2018 based on our current SWE value (1.8") and the fact that it's unlikely to snow much between now and the 15th.  You can see that this year is low. In fact, most of the past 6 years have been low.  But, they are not that unusual. It's pretty common for us to have a meager base on Nov 15.  The big outlier is 2004 where we got all that snow in October and had almost 13" of SWE on November 15, 2004.  For reference, it took us until the middle of February last winter to reach 13" of SWE!  

If you're frustrated with the forecast and wanting big storms, you're not alone.  I am as well.  However, I can take solace in the fact that earlier in the season, it really only takes one good storm to get us back on track.  I have faith that the pattern will shift by the end of November to one that favors snowfall.  Until then, stay tuned and I'll let you know what I see. 

Evan | OpenSnow

Based on the forecast above, do you think you can predict where and when the first >12" storm total will be reported?  If so, you can prove it, and in doing so, win a ski trip to Utah, Rossignol skis, and additional prizes.  You can get full details and submit your entry via the following link -->  http://bit.ly/UtahPowderDayGiveaway