Utah Daily Snow

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Late Weekend Storm


We are going to remain mostly dry through the first half of the weekend. A storm arrives for late Sunday with fresh powder most likely on Monday. More dry weather then expected later next week.

Short Term Forecast

Sunny weather today (Thursday) as temps continue to gradually warm up at elevation with inversions in the valleys. We will have a weak disturbance approach on Friday that will increase clouds a bit and kick up the breezes. I don't expect any precip from this system, however, as it is weakening rapidly.

Dry on Saturday and early Sunday before a system arrives later on Sunday. This storm is going to be stronger to our west in the Sierra Nevada and weaken a bit as it crosses the Great Basin. Still, we should see enough energy for at least modest accumulations. The GFS shows liquid amounts generally in the 0.25-0.75" range in Utah mountains through Monday:

The Euro is maybe ever-so-slightly more optimistic:

Either way, it doesn't look like a huge storm. That is reflected in the ensemble plumes which pump out about an average of 0.7" of liquid for Upper LCC by late Monday:

None of this is overly inspiring. But if we can manage 0.4-0.8" of liquid in the mountains, at 15:1 ratios that would be 6-12" of snow. Monday could at least have some fun turns. Of course, there is the potential this could trend better or the storm could surprise us. Wouldn't be the first time we've seen that this winter. ;-) 

Extended Forecast

The late Sunday into Monday storm is about it for the next 10 days per latest guidance. We will dry out again for the latter portions of next week and into the following weekend (Feb 11-12). Models continue to show troughing develop in the desert southwest thereafter. Here is a look at the EPS mean heights for Feb 14:

This is not an ideal setup for us as the storms would be somewhat "cutoffy" and likely scrappier here in Utah. However, it's not a ridge that shuts down the chances for storms either. Most likely outcome is cooler, somewhat active weather. Too early for any details and it feels like this pattern keeps getting pushed back in the models so no point worrying about it too much now. 

Ned Ryerson | OpenSnow

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