We will remain mostly dry through the first part of the weekend with a storm arriving later on Sunday with snow continuing into Monday. Beyond that we are generally back to a dry pattern for a bit.
Short Term Forecast
Today, we have a very weak wave approaching the area. I talked about this the last few days and there's no real change to the forecast. Main impact is some increasing clouds, some breezes, but unlikely for us to see anything other than maybe a quick light snow shower at elevation. Otherwise we should be dry through Saturday in Utah mountains.
The next storm arrives late Sunday into Monday. Our in-house model blend algorithm (what we use for our forecast amounts on resort pages) shows the following for Alta over the next 5 days:
We see that sometime around midday on Sunday, the front arrives and brings with it a period of snowfall to Northern Utah mountains. Then, after a lull Sunday night, we could see snow pick up again Monday morning as a NW flow behind the front kicks in. Hence, you see two distinct "peaks" of snowfall rates, adding up too just over 0.5" of liquid. If we look at the GEFS plumes, we see a similar "double peak":
These ensembles are a bit more optimistic, bringing 0.8" of liquid mean to Upper LCC by late Monday. This is closely in line with the WPC blend showing a general 0.4-0.8" of liquid in Utah mountains:
And this is all fairly closely in line with what I posted yesterday, so expect a total of 6-12" for the high elevations of Utah by Monday evening with the snow coming in two waves, Sunday and Monday morning.
We should clear out by Tuesday with cool air in this storm's wake.
Mostly dry next week as high pressure again takes control. We could see a splitting/weakening system try to do something later next week but I don't expect much. If we look at the EPS meteograms showing all ensembles, we can see that after the Sunday/Monday storm (solid column on left) we have a break and then we start to have better chances around Feb 14-16 (right hand side).
We will see how this plays out but, in general, this is a quiet start to February compared to what we saw in December and January.
Evan | OpenSnow