A bluebird day on Saturday will switch to a storm moving in on Sunday with snow likely by late Sunday afternoon in Northern Utah mountains. Snow showers continue through Monday with best powder likely for Monday morning. Mostly dry next week into next weekend.
Short Term Forecast
Clear morning on this Saturday should lead to a beautiful day. We could see breezes and clouds increase a bit by this afternoon ahead of the next system. The next storm will be arriving Sunday midday up north and sagging into the central Wasatch by mid-afternoon. Maybe we can get a couple inches by the time lift stops spinning, but most likely we are looking at Monday for the next real powder day.
As for totals, we've seen a slight nudge upward since yesterday. GEFS ensembles now bringing a mean of 1" of liquid to Upper LCC:
Our internal algorithm is slightly less optimistic, but still drops over 0.7" by late Monday:
You can also see clearly with the blue hourly bars when the period of heavies snow is most likely tomorrow afternoon as the front passes. Then perhaps a bit of a NW flow kick Monday morning.
The GFS shows a good 0.5-1" of liquid for the high mountains of northern Utah:
The Euro is much less optimistic with only 0.25-5":
But the WPC shows good totals, even higher than the GFS:
Looking at all the models and then factoring my own feelings on storm structure, I feel confident that nothern Utah mountains will see generally 0.5-1" of liquid. With average ratios of about 15:1, that would mean 7-15" total. Highest amounts are most likely in Cottonwood Canyons with lower amounts elsewhere. Snowfall amounts still drop as you go farther south, but southern Utah mountains could still pick up 3-10".
Again, maybe a chance for last chair on Sunday to be quite good, but the safest bet is Monday morning.
We are drying out by Tuesday. Far northern Utah could be brushed late Wednesday into Thursday by a system, so can't rule out a few stray showers, but otherwise we should be dry through the week and weekend. Next real chances for storms looks to be around or just after mid-month.
Evan | OpenSnow