Utah Daily Snow

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By Evan Thayer, Forecaster Posted 6 years ago January 15, 2018

Storms in our Future

Summary

Ridge will break down this week leading to a cold storm on Friday into Saturday. An additional storm is possible for early next week.

Short Term Forecast

Ridge still in control today, but things will start to change a little bit on Tuesday as a weak system pushes in off the Pacific.  This system will be torn apart by the high pressure ridge and we'll likely be left with just clouds and maybe a chance for a couple light showers Tuesday night.  Dry Wednesday and Thursday.  

A stronger trough will displace the ridge on Friday.  This will bring a cold front into the region that will drop snow levels to valley floors.  The trend over the past 24 hours has been to cut-off precip faster behind the front.  Yesterday, models were showing a front, then a long duration NW flow to add to totals.  Today, it looks more likely that snow will end by Saturday morning which will limit totals.  Hopefully models will trend back toward the long-duration NW flow event.  It would be the difference between a cold storm with moderate amounts, or a cold storm with significant amounts.  Let's look at the plumes from the 00z GFS ensembles: 

The mean is down slightly from yesterday, but notice that there were some outlier models showing far less precip today.  The 06z run of the GFS gives credence to these lower values.  You can see in map form that snowfall thru Sunday morning is lower today than yesterday.... 

This solution would generally mean 5-12" of snow for Northern Utah mountains Friday and Friday night.  

While the trend for the Friday storm has been downward, there's been a very good trend in both the Euro and GFS of an additional storm as early as Monday the 22nd.  This second storm would add good additional totals.  If we extend the same run of the GFS out its full 10 days, we have very good accumulations expected: 

So today's forecast is a bit of give and take.  Bottom line, we will have several powder days likely in the next 10 days.  Will they be deep powder days.  That remains to be seen.  But these are real winter storms with cold air and more typical Utah fluff, which will be nice to see.  

Extended Forecast

Right now it seems like we have a storm early next week (mentioned above), then we could see a temporary break late next week (approx Jan 24-27).  After which, both the Euro and GFS have another trough in the west which could bring additional storm(s).  

Evan | OpenSnow

About Our Forecaster

Evan Thayer

Forecaster

To Evan, 'The Greatest Snow on Earth' is more than just a motto - it’s a way of life. In 2010, he started Wasatch Snow Forecast as a way to share the best powder days with his fellow snow-lovers. Evan brings the same quality forecasts and weather discussions to OpenSnow and hopes you enjoy skiing/riding Utah as much as he does.

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