The 2022-2023 winter was below average in terms of snowfall for most of British Columbia. February ended up being the best month of the season overall. Temperatures were colder than average for much of the season, however, which resulted in low snow levels during many storm cycles. 

As we look ahead to the 2023-2024 winter season, it's important to remember that any winter outlook will contain an inherent degree of uncertainty. However, there are a few clues that we can keep an eye on.

Following three straight winters of La Niña, we are now heading into an El Niño this season. 

In fact, current sea surface temperatures as of late August are showing a strengthening El Niño event.

El Niño, Explained

The term El Niño refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to periodic warming in sea-surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.

El Niño represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle and means that the ocean water temperatures are warmer than average.

Confidence is increasing that we could see a strong El Niño this season, which would officially occur if sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean are at least 1.5ºC warmer than average for three consecutive, overlapping 3-month periods.

Ski Season Snowfall vs. El Niño

I have identified significant El Niño "analog" years since 1980 to evaluate snowfall or snow water equivalent at locations across British Columbia compared to 30-year averages. The exact set of years used for each location varies slightly due to different periods of record at each location, while some locations also have occasional years of missing data.

During El Niño episodes, there is a strong signal toward warmer than average winter temperatures in British Columbia, but the relationship between El Niño and snowfall tends to be a mixed bag with most areas fairly close to average.

Historical El Niño Seasons @ Whistler Blackcomb

After looking back at the seven most recent significant El Niño years and comparing them against the 30-year median season total snowfall through March 31 of 914 centimeters (360 inches) at the Roundhouse Lodge on Whistler Mountain, I've found that the median snowfall near Whistler Blackcomb during those El Niño years is 921 centimeters (363 inches) through March 31 or 101% compared to the 30-year normal.

Total Snowfall on March 31 During Significant El Niño Years

• 30-Year Normal: 914 cm 
• 1982-1983: 946 cm
• 1986-1987: 882 cm
• 1991-1992: 907 cm
• 1997-1998: 876 cm
• 2002-2003: 921 cm
• 2009-2010: 1165 cm
• 2015-2016: 1018 cm

Four out of the seven significant El Niño years produced above-normal snowfall at Whistler through March 31.

For timing, there's an interesting signal when looking at monthly snowfall during the seven most recent significant El Niño episodes and comparing them against the 30-year medians for each month.

*Note: Measurements at this station typically do not begin until mid-November.

• November: 58 cm (94%)
• December: 190 cm (84%)
• January: 276 cm (138%)
• February: 172 cm (127%)
• March: 185 cm (96%)
• April: 51 cm (81%)

Snowfall tends to be above-average during the middle of the season (Jan-Feb) and below average early (Nov-Dec) and late (Mar-Apr) in the season.

During a typical season, December is Whistler's snowiest month, but during significant El Niño seasons, January has the highest snowfall average. Also, January snowfall was above average in five of the seven significant El Niño winters we examined.

Historical El Niño Seasons @ Big White, Whitewater, and Red Mountain

After looking back at the six most recent significant El Niño years and comparing them against the 26-year median snow water equivalent (SWE) on March 31 of 517 millimeters (mm) at the Grano Creek Snow Survey Site near Big White, I've found that the median SWE during those El Niño years is 507 mm on March 31 or 98% compared to the 26-year normal.

SWE on March 31 During El Niño

• 26-Year Normal: 517 mm 
• 1997-1998: 578 mm
• 2002-2003: 454 mm
• 2006-2007: 559 mm
• 2009-2010: 416 mm
• 2015-2016: 704 mm
• 2018-2019: 323 mm

Three out of the six El Niño years produced above-normal snow water equivalent (SWE) near Big White, Whitewater, and Red Mountain on March 31.

For timing, when looking at the change in SWE each month during the six most recent significant El Niño episodes and comparing them against the 26-year median change in SWE for that month...

• October: 16 mm (84%)
• November: 80 mm (99%)
• December: 114 mm (111%)
• January: 97 mm (95%)
• February: 72 mm (83%)
• March: 111 mm (98%)
• April: 20 mm (28%)

December is more likely to be above normal during El Niño episodes, while January through March is more likely to be near or below normal. April tends to be below normal during El Niño episodes, with perhaps an earlier onset of snowmelt than normal.

Historical El Niño Seasons @ Fernie

After looking back at the seven most recent significant El Niño years and comparing them against the 30-year median snow water equivalent (SWE) on March 31 of 677 millimeters (mm) at the Morrissey Ridge Snow Survey Site near Fernie, I've found that the median SWE near Fernie during those El Niño years is 675 mm on March 31 or 100% compared to the 30-year normal.

SWE on March 31 During El Niño

• 30-Year Normal: 677 mm
• 1986-1987: 723 mm
• 1994-1995: 851 mm
• 1997-1998: 664 mm
• 2002-2003: 675 mm
• 2009-2010: 503 mm
• 2015-2016: 722 mm

Three out of the seven El Niño years produced above-normal snow water equivalent (SWE) near Fernie on March 31.

For timing, there's an interesting signal when looking at the change in SWE each month during the six most recent significant El Niño episodes and comparing them against the 30-year median change in SWE for that month.

• October: 20 mm (103%)
• November: 125 mm (123%)
• December: 109 mm (87%)
• January: 157 mm (99%)
• February: 86 mm (88%)
• March: 179 mm (144%)

It tends to be that early and late-season snowfall (November and March) is more likely to be above average, while mid-winter snowfall (Dec-Jan-Feb) is more likely to be near or below average.

Based on all winters, January is Fernie's snowiest month on average, but during significant El Niño winters, March tends to be the snowiest month.

Historical El Niño Seasons @ Revelstoke

After looking back at the six most recent significant El Niño years and comparing them against the 30-year median snow water equivalent (SWE) on March 31 of 1185 millimeters (mm) at the Mt. Revelstoke National Park Snow Survey Site near Revelstoke, I've found that the median SWE near Revelstoke during those El Niño years is 1071 mm on March 31 or 90% compared to the 30-year normal.

SWE on March 31 During El Niño

• 30-Year Normal: 1185 mm 
• 1994-1995: 1085 mm
• 1997-1998: 1064 mm
• 2002-2003: 1077 mm
• 2009-2010: 960 mm
• 2015-2016: 1283 mm
• 2018-2019: 997 mm

One out of the six El Niño years produced above-normal snow water equivalent (SWE) near Revelstoke on March 31.

For timing, there's an interesting signal when looking at the change in SWE each month during the six most recent significant El Niño episodes and comparing them against the 30-year median change in SWE for that month.

• October: 119 mm (95%)
• November: 257 mm (115%)
• December: 229 mm (105%)
• January: 196 mm (88%)
• February: 100 mm (63%)
• March: 161 mm (82%)
• April: 30 mm (48%)

It tends to be that the early season (Nov-Dec) is more likely to be above normal, while mid to late season (Jan-Apr) is more likely to be below normal.

Historical El Niño Seasons @ Rogers Pass

After looking back at the seven significant El Niño years between 1981 and 2010 and comparing them against the 30-year median season total snowfall through March 31 of 806 centimeters (317 inches) at Rogers Pass (between Revelstoke and Kicking Horse), I've found that the median snowfall at Rogers Pass during those El Niño years is 751 centimeters (296 inches) through March 31 or 93% compared to the 30-year normal.

Note: The weather station at Rogers Pass has been out of operation since 2014, so only data prior to 2014 was evaluated.

Total Snowfall on March 31 During Significant El Niño Years

• 30-Year Normal: 806 cm 
• 1982-1983: 690 cm
• 1986-1987: 751 cm
• 1991-1992: 999 cm
• 1994-1995: 785 cm
• 1997-1998: 705 cm
• 2002-2003: 660 cm
• 2009-2010: 752 cm

One out of the seven significant El Niño years produced above-normal snowfall at Rogers Pass through March 31.

For timing, there's an interesting signal when looking at monthly snowfall during the seven most recent significant El Niño episodes and comparing them against the 30-year medians for each month.

• October: 21 cm (84%)
• November: 163 cm (105%)
• December: 174 cm (99%)
• January: 203 cm (97%)
• February: 75 cm (56%)
• March: 78 cm (88%)
• April: 27 cm (77%)

Snowfall tends to be right around normal during the first half of the season from November to January, and below normal during the second half of the season from February to April.

Historical El Niño Seasons @ Shames Mountain

After looking back at the six most recent significant El Niño years and comparing them against the 30-year median snow water equivalent (SWE) on March 31 of 1202 millimeters (mm) at the Tahtsa Lake Snow Survey Site near Shames Mountain in Northwest BC, I've found that the median SWE near Shames Mountain during those El Niño years is 1190 mm on March 31 or 99% compared to the 30-year normal.

SWE on March 31 During El Niño

• 30-Year Normal: 1202 mm 
• 1994-1995: 1305 mm
• 1997-1998: 1271 mm
• 2002-2003: 966 mm
• 2009-2010: 1292 mm
• 2015-2016: 1108 mm
• 2018-2019: 891 mm

Three out of the six El Niño years produced above-normal snow water equivalent (SWE) near Shames Mountain on March 31.

For timing, there's an interesting signal when looking at the change in SWE each month during the six most recent significant El Niño episodes and comparing them against the 30-year median change in SWE for that month.

• October: 70 mm (85%)
• November: 189 mm (78%)
• December: 312 mm (116%)
• January: 258 mm (100%)
• February: 116 mm (63%)
• March: 172 mm (94%)
• April: 53 mm (65%)

It tends to be that December-January are more likely to be near or above normal, while early season (Oct-Nov) and late season (Feb-Apr) are more likely to be below normal.

Historical El Niño Seasons @ Cariboo Mountains

After looking back at the six most recent significant El Niño years and comparing them against the 30-year median snow water equivalent (SWE) on March 31 of 859 millimeters (mm) at the Kostal Lake Survey Site in the Cariboo Range, I've found that the median SWE during those El Niño years is 835 mm on March 31 or 97% compared to the 30-year normal.

SWE on March 31 During El Niño

• 30-Year Normal: 859 mm 
• 1986-1987: 700 mm
• 1987-1988: 793 mm
• 1991-1992: 835 mm
• 1994-1995: 854 mm
• 1997-1998: 871 mm
• 2002-2003: 641 mm
• 2015-2016: 884 mm

Two out of the seven El Niño years produced above-normal snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Central Cariboo Mountains on March 31.

For timing, when looking at the change in SWE each month during the six most recent significant El Niño episodes and comparing them against the 30-year median change in SWE for that month...

• October: 31 mm (42%)
• November: 169 mm (99%)
• December: 173 mm (97%)
• January: 155 mm (88%)
• February: 99 mm (99%)
• March: 146 mm (105%)
• April: 36 mm (56%)

Snowfall tends to be below average during the fall (Oct) and spring (Apr) during El Niño episodes. Otherwise, there is not much of a timing signal during the heart of ski season with near-normal percentages each month from November through March.

Temperatures During Significant El Niño Winters

While snowfall is what we pay attention to the most during ski season, temperatures are also a factor in terms of snow quality, snow levels, and precipitation type.

There is a strong signal for above-normal temperatures during El Niño winters throughout BC. While this may not affect overall season snowfall much across higher elevation terrain, lower elevations that often flirt with the rain/snow line may see a higher percentage of rain vs. snow events compared to a typical winter. 

2015-2016 El Niño Season

The most recent strong El Niño season (when Eastern Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were well above average) resulted in near-average snowpack across Southern BC (where most ski resorts are located) and below-average snowpack across Northern BC.

The map below shows the April 1, 2016 basin average snow water equivalent (SWE) anomaly. 

Overall, history tells us that British Columbia tends to be near to just slightly below average for snowfall during El Niño winters, with the potential for a stronger start and weaker end to the season. Also, temperatures are very likely to be warmer than normal, which may result in higher snow levels on average compared to non-El Niño winters.

Having said all of this, for skiers and snowboarders, keep in mind that when it comes to finding the best conditions, it’s all about timing. To have the best chance of enjoying the deepest powder, our recommendation is to book a trip 7-10 days in advance.

Sometimes, longer-range forecasts can identify possible storms 1-2 weeks (or longer) in advance, but often, forecast confidence in the details of each storm only begins to increase when the system is about one week away or closer.

If you're ready to level up your weather app for the upcoming winter season, consider upgrading to OpenSnow All-Access. Whether you’re chasing powder, searching for sunny days, or something in between, our 10-day snow forecasts, expert "Daily Snow" forecasters, and high-resolution weather maps have you covered.

But don't just take my word for it ... "Any weather app can give a mediocre forecast for a mountain town, but only OpenSnow provides a good idea of actual mountain conditions. It's a small price to pay ($29.99/year) for the best weather forecasts." – Real App Review

Alan Smith, Meteorologist
[email protected]