The 2022-2023 winter was a tough ski season for the Mid-Atlantic. Several areas saw record-low snow, but snowmaking was able to provide coverage on the bases and slopes to keep the terrain open. There were several big snowstorms, including some significant lake effect snow, that gave areas in New York and the northern Mid-Atlantic something to shred.

As we look ahead to the 2023-2024 winter season, it’s important to remember that any winter outlook will contain an inherent degree of uncertainty. However, there are a few clues that we can keep an eye on, especially this season with the upcoming El Niño.

Following the third La Niña in a row, sea-surface temperatures are warming with a strengthening El Niño event for the upcoming winter season.

El Niño, Explained

The term El Niño refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to periodic warming in sea-surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.

El Niño represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle and means that the ocean water temperatures are warmer than average.

Ski Season Snowfall vs. El Niño

The map below shows winter snowfall during seven significant El Niño episodes across the United States. The higher the number, the stronger the El Niño. The blue dots are above average, the white dots are average, and the orange dots are below average snowfall.

In general, El Niño winters tend to be a wildcard with the possibility of a normal, above normal, or even below normal winter in terms of season snowfall. The season can be a wildcard because the Mid-Atlantic is often influenced by whether a Nor'easter can bring heavy snow.

El Niño winters tend to favor Nor'easters tracking up the East Coast. In order for a Nor'easter to bring heavy snow though, there needs to be cold air, which is not always the case during El Niño. Let's take a look at how much snow different regions in the Mid-Atlantic have received in past El Niño winters. 

Historical El Niño Seasons in the Catskills

After looking back at the seven most recent significant El Niño years and comparing them against the 30-year median season snowfall of 55.1 inches at the Mohonk Lake, New York weather station. I've found that the median season snowfall at this location (just south of the Catskills) during those El Niño years is 47.1 inches or 86% compared to the 30-year normal.

The Season Snowfall During El Niño

• 1991-2020: 55.1" (30-year normal)
• 1982-1983: 77.4”
• 1986-1987: 70.2"
• 1991-1992: 31.3"
• 1997-1998: 47.6"
• 2002-2003: 94.0"
• 2009-2010: 82.5"
• 2015-2016: 15.3"

Four out of the seven El Niño years produced above normal snow near the Catskills for the whole season. 

For timing, when looking at the snowfall for each month during the seven most recent significant El Niño episodes and comparing them against the 30-year median snowfall for that month...

• November: 74%
• December: 85%
• January: 80%
• February: 71%
• March: 71%
• April: 307% 

Snowfall tends to be below normal throughout the season with a potential for an above normal end to the season. The April percentage above is a bit misleading since a median of 6in of snow fell during El Niño winters and a median of 2in during normal winters from 1990-2020. 

Historical El Niño Seasons in Western New York

After looking back at the seven most recent significant El Niño years and comparing them against the 30-year median season snowfall of 102.3 inches at the Franklinville, NY weather station. I've found that the median season snowfall at this location during those El Niño years is 87.3 inches or 85% compared to the 30-year normal.

The Season Snowfall During El Niño

• 1991-2020: 102.3" (30-year normal)
• 1982-1983: 51.8”
• 1986-1987: 82.0"
• 1991-1992: 132.0"
• 1997-1998: 117.0"
• 2002-2003: 141.2"
• 2009-2010: 74.0"
• 2015-2016: 68.0"

Three out of the seven El Niño years produced above normal snow in Western NY for the whole season. 

For timing, when looking at the snowfall for each month during the seven most recent significant El Niño episodes and comparing them against the 30-year median snowfall for that month...

• November: 102%
• December: 100% 
• January: 128%
• February: 44%
• March: 40%
• April: 100%

Snowfall tends to be around normal throughout the season with a mid-winter shot to below normal (Feb-Mar). 

Historical El Niño Seasons in Central Pennsylvania

After looking back at the seven most recent significant El Niño years and comparing them against the 30-year median season snowfall of 31.3 inches at the Williamsport Regional Airport, PA weather station. I've found that the median season snowfall at this location during those El Niño years is 27.0 inches or 86% compared to the 30-year normal.

The Season Snowfall During El Niño

• 1991-2020: 31.3" (30-year normal)
• 1982-1983: 17.6
• 1986-1987: 53.5"
• 1991-1992: 20.0"
• 1997-1998: 28.1"
• 2002-2003: 62.2"
• 2009-2010: 34.7"
• 2015-2016: 7.7"

Three out of the seven El Niño years produced above normal snow in Central PA for the whole season. 

For timing, when looking at the snowfall for each month during the seven most recent significant El Niño episodes and comparing them against the 30-year median snowfall for that month...

• November: 227% 
• December: 129% 
• January: 86%
• February: 73%
• March: 7%

It tends to be that the early season (Nov-Dec) is more likely to be above normal, while mid to late season (Jan-Mar) is more likely to be below normal.

Historical El Niño Seasons in West Virginia

After looking back at the seven most recent significant El Niño years and comparing them against the 30-year median season snowfall of 51.4 inches at the Bartow, WV weather station (near Snowshoe). I've found that the median season snowfall at this location during those El Niño years is 73.5 inches or 143% compared to the 30-year normal.

The Season Snowfall During El Niño

• 1991-2020: 51.4" (30-year normal)
• 1982-1983: No Data
• 1986-1987: No Data
• 1991-1992: No data
• 1997-1998: 92.1"
• 2002-2003: 104.4"
• 2009-2010: 91.8"
• 2015-2016: 66.2"

Several seasons did not have snow data but four out of the four most recent El Niño years produced above normal snow in West Virginia for the whole season. 

For timing, when looking at the snowfall for each month during the seven most recent significant El Niño episodes and comparing them against the 30-year median snowfall for that month...

• November: 142% 
• December: 201%
• January: 147%
• February: 162%
• March: 74%

West Virginia looks to be the best area in the Mid-Atlantic for above normal snowfall during El Niño winters. Each month except for March had above normal snowfall at the Bartow, WV weather station.

There is not a lot of consistent snow data from North Carolina to report in this winter preview. 

Temperatures During Significant El Niño Winters

While snowfall is what we pay attention to the most during ski season, temperatures are also a factor in terms of snow quality and where the rain-snow line is during winter.

I examined NOAA’s, National Center for Environmental Information (NECI) Climate Division dataset, which takes in station observations throughout the United States. A quick look at the NOAA/NECI map below for the El Niño winters analyzed above shows above normal temperatures for the Mid-Atlantic and New England.

The temperature anomalies are above normal for the northern parts of the region and are normal for areas south of Pennsylvania during the seven most recent significant El Niño years. The warmer areas in the central and northern Mid-Atlantic often lead to less lake effect snow during El Niño winters. 

Overall, history tells us that most areas in the Mid-Atlantic tend to be below normal for snowfall during El Niño winters. Each season and each region can be a bit of a wildcard and can be strongly influenced by whether a Nor'easter can bring a large contribution to the season's snowfall. 

While the average is below normal for many areas, several seasons were on the extreme ends of low to high snow seasons. While the statistics above are using the seven past El Niño winters, every winter can be different and will have its own unique impacts.

El Niño and Nor'easters

El Niño has a strong influence on the weather pattern across North America. During El Niño, storm systems tend to track through California and through the southern US. This brings storms into a favorable area of developing into Nor'easters, which can move up the East Coast and bring heavy snow. 

• El Niño can favor Nor'easters slightly, which brings the possibility of heavy snow
• Nor'easters are notorious for having a sharp rain-snow line and a sharp light-to-heavy snow zone
• This adds an additional complication to whether a given area will see more snow or not from Nor'easters during El Niño

Having said all of this, for skiers and snowboarders, keep in mind that when it comes to finding the best conditions, it’s all about timing. To have the best chance of enjoying the deepest powder, our recommendation is to book a trip 7-10 days in advance.

Sometimes, longer-range forecasts can identify possible storms 1-2 weeks (or longer) in advance, but often, forecast confidence in the details of each storm only begins to increase when the system is about one week away or closer.

If you're ready to level up your weather app for the upcoming winter season, consider upgrading to OpenSnow All-Access. Whether you’re chasing powder, searching for sunny days, or something in between, our 10-day snow forecasts, expert "Daily Snow" forecasters, and high-resolution weather maps have you covered.

But don't just take my word for it ... "Any weather app can give a mediocre forecast for a mountain town, but only OpenSnow provides a good idea of actual mountain conditions. It's a small price to pay ($29.99/year) for the best weather forecasts." – Real App Review

I'll begin updates for the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow in November!

Zach Butler