A storm system moving through the Great Lakes, Northeast US, and Southeastern Canada is bringing winds that are transporting Canadian wildfire smoke into the US. While this storm is bringing beneficial rain to wildfire fighting operations, the winds in the atmosphere (north-to-south) are causing the smoke to transport into the US, affecting air quality. 

Satellite view of the wildfire smoke (orange outline highlighting brown haze) moving into the US as indicated by the red arrow wind patterns from the wildfire around the Low pressure (red L). 

This smoke has degraded air quality so much that the National Weather Service has issued air quality alerts throughout the Upper Midwest citing, “UNHEALTHY to VERY UNHEALTHY categories, but we cannot rule out the possibility of the AQI reaching the HAZARDOUS category”. These alerts could extend east in the coming days.  

The storm system causing the smoke transport has pushed east from the Rocky Mountains, which caused severe weather and tornadoes in the Plains this past weekend. There has been additional flooding, which is currently going on in areas of the Northeast (Flood Watch in the Northeast on the map above). 

Now that the storm system has reached the Northeast US and Southern Canada, it is continuing to bring severe storms and beneficial rain to many areas that are currently in a drought. This rain has greatly helped wildfire fighting operations in Eastern Canada, yet the fires are still producing smoke. 

The wildfires continue to produce smoke because they are still very large (>250,000 acres). The rain is helping wildfire crews manage and shrink the size, but there need to be a few more weeks of consistent rain, weak winds, and cooler weather to fully extinguish the flames. 

While this storm system is bringing storms, drought relief, and wildfire assistance, the location of the storm (Southern Ontario) is also causing upper-level winds in the atmosphere to transport the wildfire smoke into the US. Winds are moving counterclockwise around the storm, which is blowing wildfire smoke around the back end of the storm into the US. 

OpenSnow surface smoke map forecast on Wednesday afternoon, June 28th with the wind pattern as indicated by the red arrow transporting wildfire smoke.  

The area of wildfire smoke is not as thick as we saw in early June, but it will degrade air quality and make the skies a bit hazy throughout the Northeast US on Wednesday and Thursday. Make sure to keep a tab on the OpenSnow air quality map as well for the latest levels of pollution in your area in the coming days. 

On Friday, June 30th, and into the weekend, another storm system will move through the Great Lakes, Northeast US, and Southern Canada, bringing beneficial rain and west-to-east winds. This storm system will temporarily move wildfire smoke out of the US. 

As the storm moves east on Saturday, July 1st, similar to what is currently happening, the winds will shift and blow north-to-south on the backend of the storm system and cause more wildfire smoke transport into the US.

Wind forecast for Sunday, July 2nd in the mid-levels of the atmosphere that will transport more wildfire smoke into the Great Lakes, Northeast US, and Southern Canada this weekend. 

The winds behind this storm system will likely move smoke into the Upper Midwest on Saturday, July 1st, and into areas of the Northeast US on Sunday, July 2nd. Some of the smoke could linger through the start of next week into the July 4th holiday, but it is too early to have confidence in this.

A complication with the smoke forecast this weekend is how widespread rain will be with this storm system. If rain is widespread, it could lead to improved air quality levels, as the rain can dilute the atmosphere and prevent haze from the smoke, temporarily improving the air quality. 

Despite the forecasted rain, wildfire smoke will continue to transport this upcoming weekend and potentially through July because the wildfires in Canada are still very large (>250,000 acres). Additionally, some numerical models show the hot and dry weather continuing in Canada through July. 

Thanks for reading and be sure to use our Forecast Anywhere feature this summer to view custom point forecasts for any location and elevation in the world as you plan your summer outdoor adventures.

Zach Butler