July 2024 was hotter and drier than average for most of the West, and wildfire activity was significant across the Interior Northwest, resulting in smoky conditions for many areas.

August is shaping up to be another hotter-than-average month, although rainfall potential looks better across the Southwest and Southern/Central Rockies due to a strengthening monsoon. 

July 2024 Review

July started out with a severe heat wave across the Southwest, California, and Interior Northwest and above-average temperatures persisted throughout the month. For some locations, this was one of the hottest Julys on record.

Numerous large wildfires ignited across the Interior Northwest and California during July. While some of these fires were human-caused, many were triggered by lightning strikes. 

Learn More → Active Wildfire Maps and Updates

Across the Central and Eastern Rockies, temperatures were closer to average as there were a few shots of cooler air from the north. However, this region also experienced a few heat waves over the course of the month. 

Most of the West also received below-average rainfall in July. Despite an earlier-than-usual start in June, the monsoon was relatively weak during July, due in part to the location of high and low pressure systems which suppressed moisture south of the Mexico border on multiple occasions.

Central and Southern New Mexico is the one area that saw near to above-average rainfall, while rainfall was generally below average for the remainder of the Southwest and the Rockies.

Coastal and Central California averages little to no rain in July, so the percentile rankings below are relatively meaningless. However, parts of the Northern Sierra (where it does actually rain in the summer) did see near to above-average rainfall. 

Areas west of the Cascade Crest in the Pacific Northwest saw an impressive rain event late in the month, but overall rainfall for the month still ended up slightly below average.

August 2024 Outlook

August is shaping up to be another hotter-than-average month, which is not great news given the ongoing fire situation.

NOAA's monthly outlook indicates high confidence of above-average temperatures for most of the West, while areas immediately along the West Coast have equal chances for above or below-average temperatures.

Despite the overall hot outlook, areas near and east of the Continental Divide (especially in Montana and Wyoming) are expected to see some heat relief during the second week of the month and possibly into mid-month, while areas west of the Divide look to stay consistently hot.

In terms of moisture, it appears the monsoon is finally strengthening more as we head into August, with the potential for more beneficial rainfall across the Southwest and the Rockies compared to July.

From the weekend of August 3rd-4th through at least mid-month, the Southwest and the Rockies are favored for above-average rainfall, with perhaps a gradual decrease in thunderstorms and rainfall late in the month, though confidence is low.

NOAA's overall monthly outlook has a large area of below-average precipitation across the Northern Rockies and across Northern/Eastern Colorado, but this may be overdone given the wetter signal for the first half of the month. We would argue that equal chances would be more appropriate.

Across the Southwest and Southern Rockies, above-average precipitation is favored in Arizona and New Mexico, with equal chances of above or below-average precipitation for most of Utah and Western Colorado. The Sierra Nevada Range also has equal chances for above or below-average precipitation.

Fire and Smoke Outlook:

Unfortunately, the fire situation across California and the Interior Northwest is unlikely to improve much through at least the first half of August given the continued outlook for above-average temperatures. Smoke from wildfires will continue to impact parts of the Interior West from time to time as well.

The National Interagency Fire Center is projecting above-average significant fire potential across California, the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and much of Idaho with near-average potential for the Central Rockies and Southwest.

Fire season took a turn for the worst in late July across Western Canada, most notably in Jasper National Park where a wildfire caused significant damage in the town of Jasper.

Numerous fires are also burning in British Columbia, and above-average fire potential is expected throughout Western Canada during August.

Thanks so much for reading! I will post the next monthly update in early September. 

Alan Smith