This June saw a record-breaking heat wave with above-normal temperatures throughout the month. Severe weather brought wind, hail, and even tornado damage to many areas in the Eastern US. There was a lack of storms and consistent precipitation through the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast though, which brought below-normal precipitation through much of the East, except for New England.

July will see high chances (30-70%) of above-normal temperatures but equal chances of normal precipitation throughout the East. Read on to learn more about the weather in June and the forecast for July.

June 2024 Review:

June was an active month of weather across the East. Summer got underway with record heat during the week of June 17, due to a strong high-pressure system. The heat wave brought heat indexes into the low 100s throughout much of the Eastern US. The rest of June saw above-normal temperatures and high dew points, which made it a hot and humid start to summer.

The high heat indexes and high temperatures were associated with thunderstorms throughout June. Many storms were severe, which brought wind, hail, and even tornado damage throughout the East. June is at or near the climatological peak for severe weather activity through much of the East so severe weather was expected.

Below is a look at the preliminary severe weather reports from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in June 2024.

The thunderstorm activity did not bring consistent amounts of precipitation to the Eastern US though, with a lack of widespread precipitation. Specifically, states south of the Maryland-Pennsylvania border did not see widespread storms and precipitation in June, which brought below-normal precipitation. A few areas in New England were the only places that saw normal to above-normal precipitation in June.

July 2024 Outlook:

The outlook for July shows high chances of above-normal heat throughout the Eastern US and also the US as a whole. There is a 30-70% chance of above-normal temperatures through the East with higher chances in the Southeast and lower chances (near normal potentially) closer to the Great Lakes.

I do not see many opportunities for below-normal temperatures this July, so expect the summer heat to continue with high dew points, making temperatures feel hotter. 

The precipitation forecast in July shows mostly equal chances of above and below-normal precipitation. The few exceptions to this will be along the East Coast, with a 30-50% chance of above-normal precipitation. These higher chances of precipitation will be associated with the potential for tropical systems to bring heavy precipitation to coastal areas.

 

Tropical Outlook:

As of July 1, we have the first hurricane of the year, Beryl. Beryl has quickly strengthened into a category 5 hurricane, located in the eastern Caribbean, and is expected to impact several islands over the coming days. This is the strongest hurricane on record, this early in the summer! The track of Beryl will continue to the west and track south of Cuba and affect Jamaica. After this, on Thursday, July 4 uncertainty remains and the storms has a chance to impact Mexico, but could approach the Gulf of Mexico as well.

There are well above normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, which will cause favorable conditions for tropical cyclones to grow and strengthen in July and this summer.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has an 85% chance of above-normal hurricane and tropical storm activity. The season is already started above-normal with three tropical systems named as of July 1, 2024.

Fire and Smoke Outlook:

Eastern US wildfires are not common and if they do occur, usually cover a small area with limited impacts. Despite that, wildfires occurring in the Western US and Canada can transport smoke and cause impacts across the East. We all remember the doomsday sites across the East from wildfire smoke transport from Canada in June 2023.

Below is a look at the wildfire potential across the US in July 2024.

The combination of a dry June with above-normal temperatures are increasing wildfire potential in many Mid-Atlantic and Southeast states. The above-normal wildfire potentials are also expected to increase across the Western US in July, which will cause a higher chance of wildfire smoke transport.

The wildfire season in Canada will see favorable chances of above-normal activity in July as well. Above-normal temperatures and a dry June will lead to favorable activity for wildfires, which could transport smoke into the Eastern US.

Below is a look at the wildfire forecast across Canada in July 2024.

It is too early to confidently say when, where, and if wildfires develop, let alone where they transport smoke. We will want to keep an eye on the sky and the OpenSnow smoke transport map. 

Happy July and enjoy summer! I will continue the monthly reviews and forecasts at the start of each month this summer and into the fall.

Zach Butler