Sunday was mostly cloudy across the northern and central mountains with a few lingering snow showers. The total weekend snowfall was 1-6 inches with the deeper accumulations near and above 11,000 feet, and some snow accumulated down to about 9,000 feet, too.

Monday

This will be the lull before the storm. Look for warm temperatures and dry weather.

Storm Part #1 – Tuesday & Wednesday

Snow will begin to fall just after Monday at midnight and we'll see snow showers all day on Tuesday. Initially, the showers should produce the most snow over the southern mountains, then by Tuesday afternoon, steadier snowfall should hit all mountains as the center of the storm crosses Colorado.

From late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, snow will continue for some central and northern mountains as the wind direction switches to blow from the west.

Below is the multi-model average snow forecast from Monday midnight through Wednesday mid-morning.

During this first part of the storm, I think that the areas noted on the map above have the best chance for near double-digit totals. The southern mountains will do well on Tuesday when the winds are from the southwest. On Tuesday evening, the combination of storm energy and a favorable wind from the west should favor the area around Steamboat and the northern divide around Cameron Pass. Then from late Tuesday night through Wednesday mid-morning, the wind from the west will continue to favor the Steamboat and Cameron Pass areas, and the Aspen area often does well with a west-ish wind.

During this first part of the storm, the snow level will get down to about 6,000 feet, which means that all mountains and most valleys will see snowflakes and not raindrops.

Lull – Wednesday afternoon to Thursday midday

We'll be in between storms during this time so additional snow accumulations should be minimal. Clouds will stick around for most northern and central mountains, and temperatures will stay cool, so there will be snowmaking.

Storm Part #2 – Thursday midday – Friday morning

This second part of the storm will be weaker than the first part of the storm, but the latest models are trending toward a little more snow than earlier forecasts, and also, temperatures during this second part of the storm will be colder than earlier in the week.

Below is one model's snow forecast from Thursday midday to Friday morning around sunrise. This WILL change, but I wanted to at least post an image to give a feel for the snow potential.

The wind direction during this part of the storm will be from the northwest-to-north over the northern and central mountains, and from the northeast east of the divide over the foothills and the Denver metro area. These wind directions are pretty favorable for those respective areas, so 2-6+ inches isn't out of the question even though this will be a weaker and fast-moving system. Something to note is that the metro areas east of the divide will likely see their first snow of the season.

If this were mid-winter, I'd say that Friday morning would be a sneaky good pow day thanks to a soft base from Tuesday/Wednesday's snowfall and then the fluffier and colder snow falling on Thursday night. Also, storms like the one on Tuesday/Wednesday usually steal the headlines while weaker systems like the one on Thursday into Friday are somewhat forgotten, and that can lead to less crowded slopes.

But this is still early season, so there will be just a few turns made on Wednesday or Friday. If you head out to explore, please just watch the sharks lurking underneath as 10-18+ inches of snow will look nice but won't cover everything. Stay light on your feet:-)

Total snow this week

Our multi-model snow forecast map from Tuesday through Friday for Colorado shows the following totals for the week. Of course, think of these totals as a range and not an exact number, but I do like the map just to help give a feel for where the deeper snow may fall.

Early-season storms do not help us to predict how snowy or not snowy the season will be, but it sure is fun to get back on the storm train this week.

Looking ahead, the upcoming weekend and next week (October 16-23) should be mostly or completely dry and warm.

There could be some storm energy with a few showers that sneak into Colorado from the south or southwest, but at this point, the week generally looks quiet.

During the quiet week from about Oct 16-23, snowmaking should continue, with borderline temperatures maybe being somewhat counterbalanced by drier air which helps with snowmaking efficiency.

Looking far ahead, the longest-range models are starting to show the chance for somewhat more active weather during the final week of October and into early November, so maybe we'll have more to talk about as we get closer to Halloween.

I'll be back with a fresh update on Tuesday, October 12.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains