Another quick update today, as I was in the ER with a sick baby. We are still watching the evolution of the pattern next week and more specifically, how far south the next major storm will track. 

This storm looks to pack a serious punch and deliver a lot of snow to parts of the Alps. As has been the case many times this season, the models are struggling to nail down a storm track that either moves west to east THROUGH the Alps or drifts south of the Alps and passes below them. 

This track is crucial in determining who gets the most snow. The more northerly track, with a storm that moves west to east through the Alps, features mostly northwest winds and favors the northern French and western Swiss Alps. The southern French, eastern Swiss, and western Austrian Alps receive some snow, but not nearly as much. The southern Alps, in this scenario, receive little to no snow, with the dry downsloping winds on the leeward side of the Alps.

A more southerly storm track takes the center of the low pressure south of the Alps, resulting in predominantly southerly winds. An initial period of southwest winds prior to the storm dropping south brings heavy snow to the southern French Alps, and then the southern Alps of Italy, Switzerland, and Austria are favored as southerly winds dominate for most of the storm. Some wrap-around snow courtesy of north or northeast winds can bring some snow to the eastern Austrian Alps as well.

Several times this season, the models have advertised a storm with a more southerly track, only to back off and bring the storm much farther north as the date of the storm approaches. Over the last few days, the models have all trended on a more southerly solution, but given that this storm is still almost a week away, I am not convinced. The odds favor this southerly storm track at the moment, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a northward trend this week. All we can do is continue to monitor the upper-level pattern and watch for trends.

Below is an early look at potential snow totals given a more southerly storm track.

I'll have another update tomorrow.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone