Since there's not much going on, I will just give a brief update on what the models have done over the last twenty-four hours. While the European model has remained the same, bringing a strong upper-level low into the Alps from the west, the American and Canadian models have undergone some changes. 

In these changes, they are in agreement, and instead cut off the upper-level low sending it south of the Alps. This would bring the deepest snow to the southern French Alps and southern Italian/Swiss Alps. Let's compare the model runs from yesterday to today.

Yesterday:

Today:

You can clearly see the southerly shift in the American and Canadian deterministic models from yesterday to today, with the low beginning to cut off in the timeframe shown above (Sunday). 

The ensembles have been, and continue to be, more in agreement on the pattern. However, it is the nature of the ensembles to smooth out alternative scenarios in the long range so they can miss features like this. As you can see below, all three ensembles have an area of low pressure approaching the western Alps next weekend. 

All in all, this is a favorable pattern seven days out. Several times this year we have seen some of the models taking these storms south of the Alps in the three to seven-day range, only to come back to a more northerly track as the storm approaches. For that reason, I am even more hesitant to believe the latest deterministic model scenario from the American and Canadian models. 

For now, all we can do is continue to watch these trends and look for other features in the upper levels that influence the storm track. Back tomorrow with the latest.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone