I don't have any changes to report since the previous post, so this will be a very short forecast. The three major ensemble forecasts, American, European, and Canadian keep the ridge in place through at least mid-month. Below is the five-day average upper-level pattern for November 10th through 15th for each of these models. 

The deterministic models show the ridge drifting just far enough to the northwest to allow a trough to drop down through Eastern Europe around the 13th. Even if this scenario did occur, which has no support from the ensembles, it's unclear if it would be far enough west to bring precipitation into the Alps.

This is what's giving me a tiny bit of hope that things may start to change after ten more days of this brutal blocking pattern. We could see this trough trending farther west but the deterministic models have not been consistent with its timing and location. This is around day ten in the deterministic models, where accuracy is poor, however, so my "hope" is more optimism than anything based in reality. 

I still don't see anything indicating a pattern change beyond mid-month, so we are stuck in wait-and-see mode.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Next post on Wednesday or Thursday.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow