A solid storm will impact the Alps and Pyrenees this week, though there have been some important changes over the last twenty four hours. The change relates to the track of the second area of low pressure moving through the region. 

In yesterday's models, this secondary low stayed well north of the Alps, allowing the southerly winds of the initial low do remain in place over the southern Alps. 

In today's models, the secondary low tracks much closer to the Alps, and eventually is expected to cross over them, as you can see below. This decreases the length of time the southern Alps will experience southerly winds, bringing a faster transition to northernly winds.

The result of this change in the upper-level pattern is less snow for the southern Alps, and a bit more for the northern side of the range. Still, the eastern side of the southern Alps in Italy should do well, into Slovenia, as well as the northern side of the Alps in France, Switzerland, and Austria. In these areas, 20 - 40 cm is expected, much of which will fall Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.

The latest forecast from the high-resolution WRF model is shown below.

Up to 10 cm is expected in the Pyrenees during this time. 

As mentioned, ridging will develop in western Europe following this storm, and stick around for the next week or more. This will push the storm track north and east of the Alps.

The long range models keep this dry pattern with a ridge dominating western Europe around through much of the first week of March. Then, there are signs this ridge will weaken and move off to the east, allowing a trough to develop in its place. This is more than two weeks away so I wouldn't bet the mortgage on it.

My next post will be on Tuesday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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