The forecast remains mostly on track for a decent round of snow from today (Tuesday) through Thursday. The models have continued to wobble a bit on the track of the second upper-level low, which has a significant impact on snow totals, especially in the southern Alps.

We've seen a more northerly track, allowing southerly winds to persist longer in the southern Alps, and for more favorable orographic effects. At times the models have favored a more southerly track for the second low, with north and northwest winds extending farther south into the southern Alps, limiting the favorable southerly winds. 

Over the last twenty four hours the models have nudged the second low a bit farther north, which would bring a bit more snow to the southern Alps. This would also bring better dynamics into the northern side of the Austrian Alps. I will share one last WRF high-res map and we will just have to see how it plays out from there.

Overall, I expect 10 - 20 cm for most of the Alps, with some areas seeing 25 - 50 cm depending on which area sees more favorable orographics for longer. I still think this could be the northern French Alps, the northern side of the Swiss/Austrian Alps, or the eastern Italian Alps.

It's interesting with these smaller systems, where the wind field is not as wide, that changes to the storm track have bigger impacts on snow totals. Oftentimes, we see large and specifically wide upper-level low pressure systems with a broad area of winds from the northwest or west, which will remain the same regardless of a small shift in the track. 

There is no good news regarding the long range weather. I am not seeing any signs of hope at the moment, with ridging remaining over western/central Europe for the foreseeable future. At this point all we can do is hope the models have a significant shift in this time frame, which is certainly possible.

My next post will be on Wednesday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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