The forecast for the Alps and Pyrenees remains on track as the next long-duration storm gets underway today (Friday). A low-pressure system over southwestern Europe will bring an extended period of southerly winds and several days of snow to the southern and southwestern Alps, and the Pyrenees will also see several days of snow.

The models have not changed much over the last few days. The snow totals in the southern Alps and Pyrenees will be significant, but the snow in the northern Alps is still a bit uncertain. As the upper-level low starts moving east early next week, the counterclockwise flow around the low will bring a period of northerly winds to the Alps. The exact track of this low will determine where these northerly winds occur and whether they will be northwest, north, or northeast.

These two factors will then determine what part of the northern Alps sees snow. At this time, the models do not agree on track. Some show a track favoring the northwestern Alps in France and Switzerland, while others would bring snow to the northern Alps in Austria. This part of the storm is expected early next week, so we have a few more days for the models to sort this out.

Below is the latest forecast from the high-resolution WRF model. I think 25 - 50 cm for most of the Pyrenees and southern Alps is reasonable, with some favored areas ending up in the 50 -100 cm range. The southern French Alps should do well also, but as mentioned, the snow totals in the northern Alps may need to be adjusted. 

As the main upper-level low departs next week, things will calm down, with some lingering showers possible. The models still show some smaller storms coming down from the north next weekend and into the following week; this could bring some more snow to the northern Alps, but it's still quite a ways away. 

My next post will be on Saturday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow