I am definitely starting to repeat myself, but the stretch of snowy weather in the southern Alps has continued over the last several days. The southern Alps got off to a very slow start this season but much of the last two months delivered the most consistent snow to this region.

While we don't want to see any major part of the Alps stay dry for an extended period of time, the northern Alps in Switzerland and Austria have naturally been drier than normal, while the southern Alps have experienced an extended period of wet weather. 

Over the last one to two days, however, the models have been hinting at a possible pattern change that would bring heavy snow back to the northern Alps. Given the lack of model agreement at this time, that's all I will say for now. I will be watching this very closely, though.

Over the last few days, the southern Alps have continued to see moderate to heavy snow. Most areas have seen at least 5 to 15 cm, while 25 to 50 cm has fallen in the southern Alps in western and central Italy, in the Swiss Alps along the Switzerland/Italy border, and in the southern French Alps. 

Below are the estimated 3-day snow totals from the high-res WRF model for the Alps and Pyrenees.

The southern side of the Pyrenees has also done fairly well, with 10 to 20 cm over the last few days and up to 50 cm in favored locations.

This pattern will linger for a few more days, bringing some solid additional accumulations through Monday night. As the upper-level low finally starts making its way east, we should see a brief period of northerly winds that will bring some better snow to the northern Swiss and Austrian Alps. It doesn't look like much, but perhaps 5 - 15 cm could accumulate from Wednesday to Thursday, favoring the Austrian mountains. These little refresher-type storms can go a long way in maintaining decent conditions during these relatively dry stretches. 

The latter part of Thursday and then Friday should offer a break in the action for most of the Alps and Pyrenees, but the next storm is expected to move in on Friday night, dropping down from the northwest. However, this is where the models begin to diverge, so we need to give them a few more days to come to better agreement on the pattern later this week. 

As mentioned, this could be the start of a little stretch of cold and stormy weather for the northern Alps. This would be a much-needed pattern change, bringing the possibility for some bigger storms in the northern Alps. The models are definitely struggling with this change, though, but let's hope they're onto something. I'll have an update in tomorrow's post.

My next post will be on Monday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow