Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow
By Zach Butler, Meteorologist Posted 3 months ago December 4, 2023
A few snow showers will affect the northern and highest terrain of the western Mid-Atlantic on Monday bringing a trace - 2 inches of snow. A weak storm will bring snow to the western and southern Mid-Atlantic, as well as North Carolina on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of 1-6+ inches are likely due to favorable upslope snow showers.
Short Term Forecast
It has been a wet weekend but that hasn't stopped several resorts from opening. Man-made snow is the primary surface out there, but this will change this week with snow back in the forecast.
Forecast on Monday:
Scattered lake effect snow showers will fall in the northern Mid-Atlantic with a few snow and rain showers extending to the western Mid-Atlantic and even North Carolina. Snow accumulations will be minimal in the western and NC but accumulate up to 2 inches in the northern Mid-Atlantic, especially in western NY.
Forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday:
A few snow showers will fall in NY on Tuesday morning, and dissipate during the afternoon. As these snow showers dissipate, a weak storm will track into the Mid-Atlantic from the west.
This storm will begin moving into the western Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday afternoon. Light snow will fall through the remainder of Tuesday from southern NY to North Carolina. This storm will bring favorable northwest winds, which will enhance snow showers through the western Mid-Atlantic and the Smokies.
On Wednesday, snow showers will dissipate in NY and PA, but continue through western MD, WV, and the Smokies. Upslope snow showers will continue until early Thursday morning. This upslope snow setup through WV and NC will be favorable for moderate snow accumulations, which could overachieve forecasted totals.
Below is a look at the NAM model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity from 10 am Tuesday, December 5th through 10 pm Wednesday, December 6th.
Below is a look at the National Blend of Model’s (NBM) forecasted snow accumulations from Monday, December 4th through Thursday morning, December 7th.
I think several areas through WV and NC will see a couple more inches of snow due to favorable northwest winds and cold temperatures, allowing snow to fall consistently. This will bring great skiing conditions on Wednesday and Thursday!
Forecast on Thursday and Friday:
A weak storm will move through southern Canada and extend light snow into NY and possibly northern PA. This storm will be brief and could bring 1-2 inches of snow for morning freshies on Friday morning.
Friday, December 8th will be dry throughout the Mid-Atlantic!
The active storm track will continue into the weekend on Saturday, December 9th, and Sunday, December 10th. A dip in the jet stream could time nicely with a storm tracking through the southeastern US. This could be a recipe for snow through the East Coast, but a lot of model uncertainty still exists.
The model uncertainty is related to the storm timing with the dip in the jet stream. This will affect whether the storm is weaker and tracks through the region and to the west. The storm could also track along the coast and strengthen, potentially turning into a coastal storm.
Below is a look at the Euro ensemble’s model’s predicted upper-level pattern on Sunday, December 10th highlighting the two storm track possibilities.
Thanks for reading and have a great start to your week. The next forecast will be on Wednesday.
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