Midwest Daily Snow

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By Croix Christenson, Meteorologist Posted 1 year ago January 31, 2023

Lake Effect Continues

Summary

The colder temperatures will continue much of this work week, with periods of lake effect snow. A warming trend looks to be on tap for the upcoming weekend with some light precipitation chances possible. The milder conditions look to continue into the first full week of February.

Short Term Forecast

The snow has continued to stack up in the lake effect snow belts the past 48 hours, with reports of 3-9". 

Here is a look at Mont Ripley from Monday with periods of moderate to heavy lake effect snow!

Tuesday - Friday:

There might be a few bursts of very light snow possible, otherwise, any resorts in the non-lake effect snow belts will be dry, and breezy at times, with periods of sun. 

More consistent snow showers return to the south shore of Lake Superior and western portions of lower Michigan Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A brief lull is expected late Wednesday into Thursday am as winds become more southerly. The lull does not last long before an area of light snow and the return of colder air and northerly winds bring widespread lake effect snow showers back Thursday into Friday morning. 

Snowfall Amounts:

  • Ironwood, Michigan resorts a dusting to a couple of inches
  • Western UP (Porkies, Ripley, and Bohemia), 4-10", with the upside of more
  • Searchmont 3-6", with 4" reported Tuesday morning
  • Traverse City Region, 3-6"+ likely for the resorts further north, 2-4" possible further south for Crystal and Caberfae
  • Southwest lower Michigan resorts, dusting to a couple of inches (most of the lake effect snow remains closer to the lake)
  • The rest of the Midwest is dry to only a dusting it appears 

Here are the ECMWF and GFS forecast precipitation types through Friday afternoon:

ECWMF:

GFS:

Here is a look at a new graphic I created showing forecasted snow quality and 3 hourly snowfall amounts! The blue bar shows predicted snowfall every 3 hours from a blend of models and the black line is the expected snow quality.

The snow for the rest of this week will be of excellent quality thanks to those cold temperatures: light and fluffy. This blend of models may be too low on the snowfall amounts but does have the timing down on when to expect the heaviest lake effect snow.

Mont Ripley & Bohemia: 

Boyne Highlands used a proxy for Traverse City Resorts:

Searchmont:

Saturday - Sunday:

This upcoming weekend looks to bring a warming trend, with some light snow chances. After a cold stretch, the return of widespread highs in the 20s and 30s will feel quite mild. 

About 50% of the models have some light snow for the Midwest, while the rest of them are fairly dry or keep the snow chances on the north and east side of Lake Superior. Regardless, the models that do have some snow look to only bring a couple of inches. 

Extended Forecast

Fantasy Land, First Full week of February (6-12):

  • Most models now are in agreement we return to above-normal temperatures overall
    • This may last into the middle of February
  • Likely be warm enough for the return of rain for some - nooo!
  • Monday the 6th into Tuesday the 7th, first chance of rain and snow arrives 
  • Some models (~30%) have a larger system around the 9th, but that is over a week away, and low confidence at this time

-Croix

Announcements

Road Conditions:

Regions:

North Shore Lake Superior/Northeast Minnesota
Giants Ridge, Spirit Mountain, Mont du Lac, Lutsen, Bearskin, Loch Lomond, Mount Baldy

UP/South Shore Lake Superior/Lake Effect Snow Belt
Birkie, Whitecap, Powderhorn, ABR, Porkies, Snowriver, Ripley, Bohemia, Marquette Mtn, Ski Brule, Pine Mtn, Searchmont

Twin Cities Region
Trollhaugen, Wild Mountain, Powder Ridge, Hyland Hills, Afton Alps, Buck Hill, Welch Village, Mount Kato, Coffee Mill

Central Wisconsin
Granite Peak, Paul Bunyan, Nordic Mtn

Southern Wisconsin Region
Mt La Crosse, Cascade, Devil's Head, Tyrol, Little Switz, Sunburst, Wilmot, Alpine Valley(WI), Sundown(Iowa), Chestnut(Illinois)

Northern Lower Michigan/Traverse City Region/Lake Effect Snow Belt                                            Boyne Highlands, Nub's Nob, Boyne Mtn, Shanty Crk, Crystal Mtn, Caberfae, Treetops, Otsego

Southwest Lower Michigan/Grand Rapids Region/Kalamazoo Region/Lake Effect Snow Belt
Cannonsburg, Bittersweet, Timber Ridge, Swiss Valley

Southeast Lower Michigan/Eastern Michigan/Detroit Region
Mt Holly, Pine Knob, Mt Brighton, Alpine Valley(MI)

About Our Forecaster

Croix Christenson

Meteorologist

Croix grew up in Saint Paul, Minnesota where he developed his passion for the outdoors and snow. He attended the University of Wisconsin-Madison and received his BS and MS in Atmospheric Science. When not working, you will find Croix exploring his Duluth, Minnesota backyard by skiing, mountain biking, fishing, surfing, hiking with his dog Doppler, or just about any activity that gets him outside.

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