The next arctic blast is on our doorstep, which will bring widespread readings below zero, with many resorts dipping into the teens and 20s below zero Thursday night. With this colder air will also come lake effect snow to end the week before milder temperatures return for the weekend.
Short Term Forecast
A quick note on the next few forecasts (Friday-Sunday) might be posted irregularly as I will be on a short trip and will have limited internet availability.
Thursday - Friday:
Recent snowfall reports:
- Bohemia reported 7" on Wednesday, 17" the past few days, and no report yet Thursday morning
- Resorts in the Traverse City Region are reporting 1-4" in the last 48 hours
- Nothing reported yet but moderate to heavy snow is falling in the western UP from Ironwood all the way up to Bohemia
Here is a look at the Snowriver webcam early Thursday morning:
This snow will move out Thursday morning and we will see a transition to lake effect snow into Friday morning. 1-4" has likely already fallen for the western UP early Thursday morning based on reports in the area. I expect another inch or two for the Ironwood, Michigan resorts, 2-4" for the Porkies, and 3-8" for Mont Ripley and Bohemia through Friday.
There will be some snow showers possible in the non-lake effect snow belts on Thursday as the arctic front pushes south. Any accumulation will likely be a dusting to half an inch. It will be quite cold Friday morning, with first chair temperatures ranging from the single digits above zero for the Detroit, Michigan resorts to teens and 20s below zero in portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Check ahead before heading to the slopes as some resorts have already adjusted their hours.
The area of snow associated with the cold front is just entering lower Michigan which will bring a burst of snow for the Traverse City resorts before a transition to lake effect snow showers. Accumulations through Friday are still expected to be in the 3-6" range for the Traverse City Region, with 1-3" likely for Crystal and Caberfae.
Here are the NAM forecast precipitation types from Thursday AM to Friday midday:
The snow Thursday and Friday will be of excellent quality thanks to those cold temperatures: light and fluffy.
Here is a look at 3-hourly snow and snow quality for Shanty Creek Resort:
Warming temperatures associated with a warm front will be welcomed after bitter cold Thursday into Friday, highs will be mainly in the 20s and 30s for the Midwest.
Some light snow will be possible for the Lake Superior Region and the northern half of lower Michigan with accumulation in the dusting to a couple of inches range.
ECWMF forecast precipitation types for Friday night into Saturday afternoon:
Sunday looks to be similar to Saturday with another round of light snow possible in the Lake Superior region with new snow mainly less than 2". Temperatures will continue to warm with some middle and upper 30s possible in the southern portion of the Midwest.
First Full week of February (6-12):
- Most models now are in agreement we return to above-normal temperatures overall
- Likely lasts into the middle of February
- Will be warm enough for the return of rain for some - nooo!
- Monday the 6th into Tuesday the 7th, the first chance of rain and snow arrives
GFS & ECMWF forecast precipitation types Tuesday am:
- A little better agreement (~40% of models) have another system around the 9th & 10th
- This system would bring rain and snow to the Midwest
Fantasy Land Week of February (13-19):
- Likely continue to see above-normal temperatures overall
- Some models (~30%) have a larger system around the 14th & 15th of February
North Shore Lake Superior/Northeast Minnesota
Giants Ridge, Spirit Mountain, Mont du Lac, Lutsen, Bearskin, Loch Lomond, Mount Baldy
UP/South Shore Lake Superior/Lake Effect Snow Belt
Birkie, Whitecap, Powderhorn, ABR, Porkies, Snowriver, Ripley, Bohemia, Marquette Mtn, Ski Brule, Pine Mtn, Searchmont
Twin Cities Region
Trollhaugen, Wild Mountain, Powder Ridge, Hyland Hills, Afton Alps, Buck Hill, Welch Village, Mount Kato, Coffee Mill
Granite Peak, Paul Bunyan, Nordic Mtn
Southern Wisconsin Region
Mt La Crosse, Cascade, Devil's Head, Tyrol, Little Switz, Sunburst, Wilmot, Alpine Valley(WI), Sundown(Iowa), Chestnut(Illinois)
Northern Lower Michigan/Traverse City Region/Lake Effect Snow Belt Boyne Highlands, Nub's Nob, Boyne Mtn, Shanty Crk, Crystal Mtn, Caberfae, Treetops, Otsego
Southwest Lower Michigan/Grand Rapids Region/Kalamazoo Region/Lake Effect Snow Belt
Cannonsburg, Bittersweet, Timber Ridge, Swiss Valley
Southeast Lower Michigan/Eastern Michigan/Detroit Region
Mt Holly, Pine Knob, Mt Brighton, Alpine Valley(MI)