Rain and snow arrives Monday into Tuesday morning, with a brief break on Wednesday before the next system arrives for Thursday into Friday. Both systems this week will bring a mix of rain and snow and temperatures will be mild.
Short Term Forecast
Monday - Tuesday:
- Snow quality will be wet/dense to medium-density powder
- Generally, 1-2" of snow is expected, with a few pockets of 3" possible
- The best odds for 3" will be for Lutsen and Searchmont
- Drizzle/Freezing drizzle will also be possible now that we are back in the warmer pattern with more moisture
- Most of the snow falls Monday evening into early Tuesday, so first chair Tuesday is probably the best time for the softest turns
Here are the HRRR forecast precipitation types starting late afternoon on Monday, with most of the precipitation east of the Midwest by Tuesday morning. Some lingering snow showers and light rain/drizzle are possible on Tuesday from Searchmont south to the Traverse City resorts. The loop goes from Monday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon.
Here is a look at the OpenSnow Multi-Model, which I think is doing a decent job of handling the snowfall amounts and locations of snow.
What about the snow quality expected? Sadly, with the milder temperatures I still expect the snow quality to be wet/dense to medium-density snow, rather than dry/fluffy. Here is a look at the forecast snow every 3 hours and snow quality for a few resorts:
The main story for Wednesday will be the mild temperatures with most of the resorts in the Midwest hitting the 30s or warmer for highs. Will feel more like early March than early February out there. This continues the theme of the winter: short periods of good snow and colder temperatures, only to be followed by warmer temperatures and rain.
Little to no precipitation is expected during the day on Wednesday.
Thursday - Friday:
- A well-organized system arrives late Wednesday night bringing rain and snow
- Snow amounts could be in the 3-8"+ range
- Snow quality will range from wet/dense to medium density for the most part
- Models still have about a 100-mile range on where the heaviest band of snow sets up
At this time the ensembles favor south-central Wisconsin up to northwest lower Michigan and portions of the UP. Here is a look at the ECMWF ensemble and the favored regions of seeing snow (oranges and reds are the best odds at this time):
Precipitation arrives late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and likely lasts into Friday morning as some lingering lake effect snow will be possible.
Saturday - Sunday (February 11-12):
- Some models (~30%) have a weaker system for Friday night into Saturday with some light snow/lake effect snow possible
- At this time Sunday looks relatively quiet
Fantasy Land Week of February (13-19):
- Likely continue to see above-normal temperatures overall
- Just over half of the models (~60%) have a larger system around the 14th-16th of February
- This may come in two pieces with multiple rounds of rain and snow
- Has the potential to bring multiple days of powder conditions
- Hints of a pattern change around the 17th to cooler temps for a few days
North Shore Lake Superior/Northeast Minnesota
Giants Ridge, Spirit Mountain, Mont du Lac, Lutsen, Bearskin, Loch Lomond, Mount Baldy
UP/South Shore Lake Superior/Lake Effect Snow Belt
Birkie, Whitecap, Powderhorn, ABR, Porkies, Snowriver, Ripley, Bohemia, Marquette Mtn, Ski Brule, Pine Mtn, Searchmont
Twin Cities Region
Trollhaugen, Wild Mountain, Powder Ridge, Hyland Hills, Afton Alps, Buck Hill, Welch Village, Mount Kato, Coffee Mill
Granite Peak, Paul Bunyan, Nordic Mtn
Southern Wisconsin Region
Mt La Crosse, Cascade, Devil's Head, Tyrol, Little Switz, Sunburst, Wilmot, Alpine Valley(WI), Sundown(Iowa), Chestnut(Illinois)
Northern Lower Michigan/Traverse City Region/Lake Effect Snow Belt
Boyne Highlands, Nub's Nob, Boyne Mtn, Shanty Crk, Crystal Mtn, Caberfae, Treetops, Otsego
Southwest Lower Michigan/Grand Rapids Region/Kalamazoo Region/Lake Effect Snow Belt
Cannonsburg, Bittersweet, Timber Ridge, Swiss Valley
Southeast Lower Michigan/Eastern Michigan/Detroit Region
Mt Holly, Pine Knob, Mt Brighton, Alpine Valley(MI)