Most of the precipitation has exited the Midwest from Monday night's system with some lingering rain and snow in lower Michigan and over near Searchmont. The main story for the rest of the week will be the looming system for late Wednesday into Thursday that will bring widespread rain and snow to the Midwest.
Short Term Forecast
Tuesday - Wednesday:
Other than some lingering light rain and snow in the eastern portion of the Midwest Tuesday morning, Tuesday will mostly be quiet with northwest winds bringing in some slightly cooler air.
Radar early Tuesday morning:
The forecast for Wednesday is largely unchanged, with most of the resorts seeing mild temperatures and dry conditions, making it feel like March.
Wednesday Night - Friday:
- A well-organized system arrives late Wednesday night bringing rain and snow
- Snow amounts in the 3-8"+ range likely
- Snow quality will range from wet/dense to medium density for the most part
- Models have come into better agreement on where the heaviest snow sets up
This will be a pretty complex forecast with some resorts flirting with the rain/snow line from southern Wisconsin up into the northern portion of lower Michigan. The best odds of staying mostly snow will be from Mount La Crosse up to Granite Peak, Marquette Mountain, and east to Searchmont. Areas south and east of that line will see a mix of rain and snow or all rain. Areas north and west of that line will see light snow or little snow through Thursday morning.
Here is a look at rough sketch of expected precipitation types for Wednesday night into Thursday:
And an animation of forecast precipitation types from Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon (Blues = Snow, Pinks = Mix of Rain/Snow, Greens = Rain:
Based on the ECMWF and GFS ensembles, here is a look at the locations that have the best odds of exceeding 3" from Wednesday night into Thursday:
As we get into Thursday evening, another area of snow will develop that will bring a chance of snow, especially to the western portion of the UP where Lake Superior will enhance some of the snowfall. This secondary development needs to be monitored as some models have the western UP (Ironwood resorts up to Bohemia) picking up 2-5" Thursday night into Friday.
This secondary area of snow will likely move southeast and could bring another 1-2" elsewhere in the Midwest. This system, like many we have had this winter, will have plenty of moisture to work with so it will not take much to create a quick inch or two of snow.
With the ample moisture around, expect drizzle/freezing drizzle to be common in between periods of heavier rain and snow, similar to what we have had with past systems this winter.
On Wednesday's forecast, I will provide forecast snowfall amounts for each of the resorts and some snow quality graphs once we have a little better agreement among the models.
Saturday - Sunday (February 11-12):
- Models have backed off the snow chance Friday night with mainly just light snow showers or flurries in the Midwest
- Sunday also looks to remain mostly dry at this time and mild, with highs in the 30s or warmer for much of the Midwest
- May see some middle-40s temps for lower Michigan?
Fantasy Land Week of February (13-19):
- Likely continue to see above-normal temperatures overall
- Most of the models (~75%) have a larger system around the 14th-16th of February
- This may come in two pieces with multiple rounds of rain and snow
- Round one may have the potential to be mostly rain
- Round two we likely see a change over to snow, but how much remains a question with it over a week away
- Hints of a pattern change to cooler temps around the 17th for a few days have remained in the models
- This pattern change for a few days could bring some lake effect snow
North Shore Lake Superior/Northeast Minnesota
Giants Ridge, Spirit Mountain, Mont du Lac, Lutsen, Bearskin, Loch Lomond, Mount Baldy
UP/South Shore Lake Superior/Lake Effect Snow Belt
Birkie, Whitecap, Powderhorn, ABR, Porkies, Snowriver, Ripley, Bohemia, Marquette Mtn, Ski Brule, Pine Mtn, Searchmont
Twin Cities Region
Trollhaugen, Wild Mountain, Powder Ridge, Hyland Hills, Afton Alps, Buck Hill, Welch Village, Mount Kato, Coffee Mill
Granite Peak, Paul Bunyan, Nordic Mtn
Southern Wisconsin Region
Mt La Crosse, Cascade, Devil's Head, Tyrol, Little Switz, Sunburst, Wilmot, Alpine Valley(WI), Sundown(Iowa), Chestnut(Illinois)
Northern Lower Michigan/Traverse City Region/Lake Effect Snow Belt
Boyne Highlands, Nub's Nob, Boyne Mtn, Shanty Crk, Crystal Mtn, Caberfae, Treetops, Otsego
Southwest Lower Michigan/Grand Rapids Region/Kalamazoo Region/Lake Effect Snow Belt
Cannonsburg, Bittersweet, Timber Ridge, Swiss Valley
Southeast Lower Michigan/Eastern Michigan/Detroit Region
Mt Holly, Pine Knob, Mt Brighton, Alpine Valley(MI)