Radar animation ending at 5:15AM.

Snow is falling across the Northeast from central Pennsylvania, through New York, almost all of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Far southern and coastal portions of New Hampshire are seeing rain, along with much of southern New England. Flakes are few and far between over in Burlington and along the Canadian Border as most of the snow stays south. 

The snow stakes have piled up anywhere from 2-5" across southern and central resorts in Vermont and New Hampshire as of 5AM on Monday. When I grabbed the snow-stake video from Stowe at 5:30 AM it had ~3.5" of new snow, and climbing. Here in central New Hampshire (Plymouth) we have about 2" new and it's coming down at ~0.5" per hour give or take. 

NAM model forecast animation from 7AM to 9PM Monday.

Snow is expected to continue throughout the day on Monday as low pressure passes east of Cape Cod and into the Gulf of Maine. Places currently receiving rain over southern New England will see a transition back over to snow (and 1-2" of accumulation), whereas locations across central New England will gradually see the back edge of the snow pass over to the southeast. A northwest and west wind will ramp up to ~30-35 mph through the evening and overnight hours creating at least some blowing snow. 

On top of the 2-5" that has already fallen, we can expect another widespread 2-5" across the region. Highest additional totals for Monday will be in southern Vermont at Stratton and Mount Snow and in New England within the Whites and Lakes Region resorts where another 6" is possible. We have another 7" falling at Gunstock on top of the 5" that they've already reported in with this morning. 

Next Round of Snow

NAM model forecast animation for 7AM to 7PM on Tuesday.

Our next chance of snow in New England favors the Greens as a cold front sweeps across the region on Tuesday. All of the snow will likely be confined to Adirondack and Green Mountain resorts with very little spill into New Hampshire or Maine. The front, followed by what looks like some snow squalls, will largely impact northern Vermont on Tuesday afternoon.

NAM and GFS Model snowfall comparison for Tuesday snowfall.

The Tuesday snows will likely be confined to the Adirondack and Green Mountains with 1-3" possible according to the NAM and GFS models. We have 1-2" at Jay in our Blend and 1" at Stowe.

ECMWF and GFS model forecast comparison for 1AM Thursday.

Our next shot at snow this week arrives on Wednesday night for most in the form of snow (or sleet) as a large storm passes to our west. This type of storm track does not bode well for big snows across New England as warm air will try to work its way up and over a wedge of cold air. We should see a mostly snow scenario across the North Country -- especially into Maine -- but will have to watch for warm air causing mixing issues in southern Vermont and New Hampshire. The forecast models try to spin up a coastal low on Thursday morning that could help anchor cold air into New England, but it might be too little too late. 

ECMWF and GFS ensemble odds of 24-hour snows >6" ending at 1PM on Thursday (26 Jan).

The ECMWF and GFS ensembles both carry >50% odds that the New Hampshire Lakes Region resorts (e.g., Gunstock) and those in the eastern Whites/western Maine (e.g., Wildcat/Pleasant) see 6 or more inches of snow. The models are less certain of 6+ inch snows in Vermont and elsewhere across New England. The story all along with this event has been "another 4-6" event possible and we have to watch for mixing" and I'm going to stick with that story for now. 

ECMWF ensemble grid for 24-hour snowfall through 7 February at Rutland, Vermont. 

The ECMWF ensemble grid does a good job, in my opinion, of illustrating our chances for snow across central Vermont over the next couple weeks. We are going to hang on to our current storm track that favors snow across the East with a continuation of chances for at least light snow (or mixed precipitation) every couple days into early February. After our ~4-6" event on Monday and our second ~4-6" event on Thursday, the timing of the next system becomes increasingly uncertain. The grids have snow in the forecast again starting early next week (Monday 30 January) and then again next Wednesday/Thursday (1/2 February), but the timing of each ensemble member is all over the place and totals range from nothing to several inches. Long story short, maybe there'll be more snow, but I can't tell you when.

-Dr. Jay

I'll get another update out on Tuesday with snowfall totals from Monday and a fresh look at the Wednesday night storm.