New England Daily Snow

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By Jay Cordeira, Meteorologist Posted 1 year ago January 25, 2023

Storms on parade

Summary

Storm #3 in our series arrives this evening with ~6-8" of snow topped by some sleet and freezing rain across central New England with higher totals through Maine. Backside snows keep the party rolling in Vermont through Friday with storm totals in the Greens expected to top 12-18". Several lighter snow events are on deck next week starting Sunday afternoon.

Short Term Forecast

Jay Peak is looking quite frosted in new snow early on Wednesday morning. Snow showers on Tuesday added up to generally 1-3" of new snow across the North Country, especially in the higher terrain of northern Vermont and in the Whites. It looks like the stake at Sugarbush climbed ~1" and the stake at Stowe notched almost 3". Mt. Washington also reported 1.8" new and Jay Peak reported 3-6" new in their snow report late on Tuesday afternoon. 

OpenSnow radar analysis as of 5:30 AM. 

Our eyes turn next to a system that is moving across the Ohio River Valley on Wednesday. The front half of this storm and its warm front will hit the region through this afternoon and evening with a heavy thump of snow before transitioning to some mixed precipitation late. The storm's dry slot (the notch currently over Tennessee and Kentucky) ultimately moves in before sunrise on Thursday and everything goes over to backside upslope during the day.

NAM model forecast animation for 7AM Wednesday through 1PM Thursday

The NAM model brings snow into the region by 1PM on Wednesday, but some of that may not reach the ground as it falls into relatively dry air to start. Much of Vermont and New Hampshire should start seeing snow between 4-7PM on Wednesday and once it starts it will snow hard at ~1" per hour. Snow tapers off just as quickly as it starts before sunrise in Vermont and likely transitions for 1-2 hours over to sleet and freezing rain in New Hampshire (most likely freezing rain) before ending for most. It should stay all snow in the Whites from Wildcat up through Sugarloaf in Maine.

 

NAM and HRRR model comparison for 1AM Thursday.

Snowfall totals across southern/central Vermont and New Hampshire are likely going to be influenced by a period of sleet and freezing rain. In other words, the new snow is going to be a bit top heavy with increase snow-to-liquid ratios throughout the event topped by some crust. If the NAM and HRRR models verify, the mixed precipitation makes it through Killington and banks up against the Whites and in the foothills of New Hampshire.

 

HRRR model snowfall comparison.

The HRRR model has front-end snowfall amounts through 7AM Thursday of ~8-13" across portions of New Hampshire and Maine with positive snow depth changes only a 1-2 inches lower (i.e., sleet, freezing rain, and compaction). Snowfall totals in Vermont are a fair bit lower with 6-8" totals along the spine of the Greens at elevation. 

NAM Model 24-hour snowfall for Thursday into Friday using a 10:1 ratio.

Unlike our past events, this storm should produce decent backside upslope snows across the Greens and the Whites. The NAM model (above) is pumping out anywhere from 4-10" in the Greens in the 24-hour period from 7AM Thursday to 7AM Friday. Storm totals will likely end up in the 10-20" range at elevation in the Greens and Whites all said and done. The big winners in each state will likely end up being Jay, Wildcat, and Sugarloaf in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, respectively. I'm guessing one of them will post 18" new.

The Weekend

The forecast is calling for mostly cloudy weather this weekend with temperatures at first chair in the teens and warming through the 20s (maybe even low 30s) on Saturday. A repeat is on deck for Sunday, but with a chance of light snow in the afternoon. We're not expecting significant accumulation, but it could be good for an inch or two as a very weak storm crosses the region. Maybe 3" in northern Vermont? We'll see. 

Extended Forecast

ECMWF model forecast animation for next week from 1PM Sunday through 7PM Thursday.

The forecast next week is still uncertain, but it looks active according to the ECMWF model. The latest guidance from the deterministic run has four weak storms through Friday centered on Sunday afternoon, Monday night, Wednesday morning, and Thursday. The first few storms cross through the region with marginal temperatures bringing once again a rain-south-snow-north situation. The first two are weak and the last two are potentially stronger. This is just one model solution, but it does a good job of highlighting the potentially active period ahead. 

ECMWF ensemble grid of 24-hour snowfall amounts through 9 February. 

Of course the ECMWF ensemble just sees next week as all lasagna (doesn't really how you stack it, you get lasagna... i.e., snow). Totals are not overly impressive, but it's light snow none-the-less on repeat.

-Dr. Jay

Announcements

Expected Daily Snow update schedule through Saturday:

  • Thursday: Update.
  • Friday: No forecast.
  • Saturday: Weekend Update.

About Our Forecaster

Jay Cordeira

Meteorologist

Jay Cordeira is an all-around outdoor enthusiast living and working among the lakes and mountains in New England. When he’s not in the classroom teaching the next generation of meteorologists, you can find him on the trails, rivers, lakes, slabs, and backcountry of the White Mountains.

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