On Monday morning, storm #1 in this week's two-storm cycle is descending across Arizona and spinning up some high clouds and windy conditions across New Mexico to start the day.

I don't expect we will see much sun or blue sky on Monday, a drastic shift from the bluebird weekend we just enjoyed.

On Monday during the day, as the storm dives south toward the southern border, most of the precipitation will remain confined to western New Mexico from Mt. Taylor down to the Gila Wilderness.

Around early afternoon, the storm's circulation could fire up a few snow showers in the northern mountains as shown on OpenSnow's forecast radar map tool. This could result in a few snow flurries and maybe a dusting to an inch of snow in the northern Sangres.

Then overnight Monday, the storm will be centered over southern New Mexico for a direct hit on Ski Apache and Ski Cloudcroft. The storm will do its best to send wrap-around snow bands northward toward the southern and eastern edge of the Sangre de Cristos. 

This is the timeframe when Ski Santa Fe and Angel Fire are a low-probability wildcard for some accumulation.

The eastern flank of the southern Sangres around Hermit's Peak in the Pecos is more favored for snow and the question is whether the storm energy and moisture can make it further west and north. The National Blend of Models has the eastern upslope flow accumulation remaining to the east of Ski Santa Fe.

Bottomline for Storm #1

• As the storm descends into southern Arizona and New Mexico on Monday afternoon, a few snow showers could pop up in the northern mountains with very minimal accumulation. 
• The main snow event should start late Monday night and into Tuesday morning favoring the southern mountains. 
• Here are my snowfall forecasts in alphabetical order for Monday night to Tuesday morning. I increased totals for Sandia Peak which could be fun for uphill access on Tuesday.
  
  • 0-2" Angel Fire
  • 0-2" Pajarito
  • 0-2" Red River
  • 3-7" Sandia Peak
  • 0-2" Sipapu
  • 5-10" Ski Apache
  • 0-4" Ski Santa Fe
  • 0-2" Taos Ski Valley
• **Note that Ski Apache is open from Thursday to Sunday in January in case you were contemplating a Tuesday morning southern chase.

Storm #2: Late Tuesday into Wednesday

We will have a break in the action on Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday afternoon, a storm will cross just to our north bringing winds from the west-northwest and a pattern favoring the far northern mountains.

This will be a very cold storm but it will lack moisture. But the cold temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees F above 10,000 feet will produce high snow-to-liquid ratios of 15:1 or greater.

So the modest snow that does fall overnight Tuesday could pile up more quickly for nice fluff on Wednesday morning. This snowfall forecast is a 10:1 ratio which is definitely low for Tuesday night's storm.

First chair Wednesday could be a sneaky good powder day in the northern mountains. Pencil it in!

After storm #2, we dry out through at least January 30. I am eyeing a storm around January 31st. But too far out still. Will dig into the extended forecast more in the coming days. 

I will post again on Tuesday with a storm #1 report and the latest scoop on storm #2.

Thanks for reading!

JULIEN ROSS
[email protected]

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New Mexico Geography Key

Northern Mountains
→ Red River, Taos Ski Valley (north side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Angel Fire (northeast side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Sipapu (middle of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Ski Santa Fe (south side of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Pajarito (southwest side of the northern mountains - Jemez)

Central Mountains
→ Sandia Peak (Sandias)
→ Mt. Taylor backcountry (San Mateos)

Southern Mountains
→ Ski Apache (Sacramentos)
→ Ski Cloudcroft (Sacramentos)