It is a frigid morning on Saturday, especially in the northern Sangres where clouds and biting winds are making it feel even colder as evidenced on the Taos Highline cam at 9:15 AM.

The southern Sangres and Jemez at least have mostly sunny conditions to accompany the cold. The Sandia Peak cam looking north shows the bluebird conditions to start the day on Saturday.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph could impact the northern mountains on Saturday as a weak disturbance passes to our north. We could see a few isolated snow flurries around Taos and Red River on Saturday with no accumulation.

January 31 - February 1 storm trending south

The good news in the short term is that a storm will cut off from the main northern storm track and drop down into the desert southwest. The bad news is that the storm is expected to go too far south and miss New Mexico.

There is strong agreement across model ensembles for this southern jaunt.

 

The position of the storm on Monday and Tuesday could produce some southwest flow and snowfall for Wolf Creek.

As the storm moves eastward across the U.S. - Mexico border on Tuesday it is expected to fizzle out. At this juncture, it appears New Mexico is not likely to receive any meaningful precipitation from this storm which is a big bummer. 

 

Of course, we will monitor closely for any changes as we are still 3-4 days out. If we are to receive any snowfall, it seems the most likely timing would be early Tuesday morning. 

After this system, most models show high-pressure building in for dry conditions to close out the first week of February.

Then way out in fantasy land, we see signals of a storm in our neck of the woods around February 7-8.

I was really hoping this January 31 storm would keep our momentum from the epic January storm cycles.

Unfortunately, barring an unforeseen shift in this storm, we could be looking at a 2-week dry spell from January 25 to February 6th or so. I will circle back on Sunday with any new updates and hopefully some better news.

Thanks for reading and stay warm out there this weekend!

JULIEN ROSS
[email protected]

January snow means dynamic avalanche conditions

We are fortunate to have the Taos Avalanche Center to help make avalanche forecasts for the Land of Enchantment. Always be sure to check out the latest before heading into the backcountry.

And Taos Avalanche Center is again partnering with the best in the business for an awesome slate of courses this season in Taos and Santa Fe. Check out the details here.

New Mexico Geography Key

Northern Mountains
→ Red River, Taos Ski Valley (north side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Angel Fire (northeast side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Sipapu (middle of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Ski Santa Fe (south side of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Pajarito (southwest side of the northern mountains - Jemez)

Central Mountains
→ Sandia Peak (Sandias)
→ Mt. Taylor backcountry (San Mateos)

Southern Mountains
→ Ski Apache (Sacramentos)
→ Ski Cloudcroft (Sacramentos)