South America Daily Snow

By Luke Stone, Forecaster Posted 1 year ago August 9, 2023
Deep Pow Days This Week, Followed By A Warm Storm Over the Weekend
Summary
Despite a warm start, our mid-week storm is looking good. Big totals expected with solid pow days Thursday and Friday. A warm and wet storm will impact the central and southern resorts this weekend and in the long range the pattern remains active.
Short Term Forecast
Overall the forecast from Monday remains on track, without too many changes. The storms are lining up in the southeast Pacific, as seen below, and we will see an overall active pattern for the next few weeks.
Forecast for Wednesday 8/9 - Friday 8/11
Since we talked about the origin and make up of this storm here, today we will focus on the timing and totals. Precipitation will begin Wednesday afternoon. With warm temperatures currently in place, snow levels will be high to start. Outside of the high elevation northern resorts like Las Lenas, Valle Nevado, and Ski Portillo, I expect light rain to start.
Temperatures will be gradually falling throughout the day though, with a slow transition to snow Wednesday evening. By Thursday morning, impressive totals of 15 - 30 cms are possible at mid mountain for Nevados de Chillan, and Corralco. At Antuco, Chapa Verde, Las Lenas, Portillo, Valle Nevado, La Parva, El Colorado, expect 8 - 16 cms by Thursday morning. Generally, lower elevation resorts and the low elevations of the resorts will see considerably less snow during this time. Winds will be strong overnight and through the day on Thursday. Below is the snow forecast from the Canadian through Thursday AM.
Snow will continue on Thursday, with a more pronounced cold front arriving Thursday morning. As temperatures drop, snow ratios will increase and snow quality will improve. Day time accumulations will be significant, with an additional 15 - 30 cms for the central resorts including Nevados de Chillan, Corralco, Pucon, Las Araucarias, Antillanca, and Antuco. Northern resorts like Las Lenas, Portillo, and Valle Nevado should see 8 - 16 cms during the day.
The brunt of the storm will have finished by the end of Thursday, but some moderate to heavy snow will linger in the central and southern areas. By Friday morning, Corralco, Pucon, and Las Araucarias could see another 10 - 20 cms, with 4 - 10 cms elsewhere.
Below is the forecast snow totals from the Canadian model from Thursday morning to Friday morning.
Any lingering snow showers should taper off Friday morning or afternoon with decreasing winds as well.
Forecast for Saturday 8/12 - Sunday 8/13
The next round of precipitation will get underway Saturday afternoon. With a more southerly track, this storm will impact the southern resorts and the southern tier of the central resorts. There will be a sharp cut off where areas to the north see little or no precipitation. The cold airmass from the previous storm will still be in place, so precipitation may start as snow. However, a warm front will quickly turn the snow to rain. Rain will then continue through Sunday with the heaviest totals shifting south.
Forecast for Monday 8/12 - Wednesday 8/14
Without any break another upper level low will move across the region. The models still disagree on the exact progression of this storm, but I will discuss some details here. Some areas won't see any lull in precipitation as this next system arrives. Precipitation will spread from south to north Monday morning and throughout the day, likely as rain initially. There will then be a transition to snow with some accumulations Tuesday or Wednesday. Right now, amounts don't look particularly impressive, but let's give the models a few more days to hone in on a better solution.
Extended Forecast
Outlook for Thursday 8/15 - Sunday 8/19
As mentioned, the storm door is open and things should remain active through the end of next week. More storms are possible around the 18th, 19th, 21st, and 22nd, one model says, under a progressive and exciting pattern. The timing on these can and will change, but expect several more chances for snow, as the models do agree on continued storminess.
Thanks for reading the South America daily snow! Follow me @lstone84 on Instagram to check out some new content I will be creating for the North American summer months.
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