We do have some changes this morning with the storm coming in this week.  The big one is to remove snow from the forecast Monday.  We will get into that in a minute, but let's review the storm that just departed first.

Storm Recap:

Watching the radar Saturday evening it was apparent that the snow showers were lingering longer than expected west of the lake along the crest.  Especially two heavier bands of snow that were sitting over Squaw and Sierra at Tahoe to the NW and SW of the lake Saturday evening.  I knew that would likely blow the 1-3 inches forecast.

I was right as they reported 6-7 inches at Squaw, Alpine & Sierra.  The rest of the ski resorts around the lake picked up the forecasted 1-3 inches.  SW of the lake from Kirkwood down to Dodge Ridge they also picked up a bit more with 4-6 inches being reported.  That brings the storm totals to 2-11 inches.  Not a bad little system.

Here is the keep me honest forecast to actual report.  Most of the ski resorts picked up more than the original forecast for the storm.  There must have been a donut hole over Homewood.  I seem to be on a roll this season under-forecasting with most of the storms over-performing.  My current average for the season is 1.9 inches under.  

The Forecast:

The next storm is approaching the West Coast this morning. We started cold this morning with temperatures in the teends, but we are expecting sunny skies for Sunday with temperatures warming into the 40's.

A big change for Monday over the past 24 hours.  All the models have trended towards stalling the jet stream over northern CA on Monday, with the moisture streaming into northern CA not making it to Tahoe.  Heavy precipitation is falling just to our NW through the day.

The GFS is the closest and fastest in pushing the precipitation southeast into Tahoe Monday night.  Some models like the NAM hold off until early Tuesday morning.  If this trend holds it will be a tease Monday into Monday evening watching the heavy precip falling on radar just to our NW, but just cloudy & windy here in Tahoe.

For Monday, we may be dry all day with just high winds.  Ridgetop winds are expected to gust to 60+ mph during the day, likely affecting the upper mountain lifts on wind prone mountains.  The best chance to see any showers will be NW of the lake up near Donner Summit.  Being on the south side of the jet we will also have higher snow levels, so if we do see any showers snow levels could be up around 7,000-7,500 feet.  This will obviously be a hit to the total snowfall forecast for the storm.

Later Monday night we should see the moisture push into Tahoe with snow levels falling down close to lake level.  We could see 1-5 inches of snow on the mountains from east to west across the Tahoe basin.

For Tuesday, the models are showing lighter more scattered showers, even some breaks in the precipitation.  The low off the coast with the heavier precipitation for Tuesday night is approaching so we could see a little warmer air work in with snow levels in the 6,500-7,000 foot range for Tuesday.  Only expecting a coating to 2 inches on the mountains.  Winds are still expected to be gusting to 50+ mph on the upper mountains.

The main event with this storm moves in later Tuesday night into Wednesday night as the area of low pressure spinning off the coast moves closer pushing in heavier precipitation.  

It will also push in colder air with snow levels falling Tuesday night down to around 5,500 feet.  We could see 1-7 inches of snow on the mountains by 4 AM Wednesday and an inch or two at lake level.  The heavy snow continues through the day into Wednesday evening.  We could see an additional 5-10 inches on the mountains Wednesday and 2-9 inches Wednesday night. 

Snow levels could fall to 5,000 feet Wednesday and below 4,000 feet Wednesday night.  That means we could see 6-12 inches of snow down to lake level.  The snow ratios on the upper mountains increase from 10-12:1 up to 14-18:1 by Wednesday night. That means the snow becomes drier and more powdery.  We are expecting strong winds to continue through Wednesday, possibly continuing to close some upper mountain lifts.

For Thursday, the snow is expected to become lighter and more scattered as we go through the day.  We should begin to dry out Thursday evening and overnight.  We could see a final 1-3 inches of snow on Thursday.  Highs in the 30's Tuesday and Wednesday on the mountains drop into the 20's for Thursday.  We are also expecting the winds to drop on Thursday.  

The forecasted total precipitation for the storm has dropped this morning due to Monday being dry on the latest runs.  Totals near the crest range from 1.6 - 4 inches this morning.  The GFS model has dropped from 4 to 2.7 inches, and the European model from 3.7 to 3 inches.  The total model average has dropped from 3 to 2.7 inches.  The WPC model is the only model that still has over 3 inches.

Once the storm gets going in force Tuesday night we still have a decent snowstorm for late March.  The updated forecast through Thursday still shows 1-3 feet possible on the mountains.

As we go into April it will be much harder to get a multi-day storm measured in feet.  This may be the last big storm of the season.  It's not impossible to get a storm measured in feet in April or even May, but it becomes harder with the jet stream weakening and shifting north.

Next Weekend:

High pressure begins to build along the West Coast Friday into next weekend.

Expecting to see sunny skies Friday through Sunday with lighter winds.  If the ridge is centered just off the coast like shown above we could stay cool through the weekend with highs in the 30's on the upper mountains and 40's at lake level.  If it shifts over CA we could be a bit warmer.

Some of the models still show a weak system trying to move through Sunday night into Monday the 1st.  It will be running into the weakening/departing high from the weekend, so we may be lucky to see any snow or maybe a dusting.

The first half of the week of the 1st may be drier, but most of the model runs are still suggesting that we could see a few storms into CA later in the week through the weekend of the 6th.

The storm track may shift into the Pacific NW the 2nd week of April.  That still leaves the possibility of us getting brushes with storms on the south side of the storm track, but less of a chance of a direct hit or significant snow.  

Stay tuned...BA