Tahoe Daily Snow
By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 4 years ago March 31, 2020
Unsettled Tuesday, Clouds & Sun Wed-Fri, Snow for the Weekend...
Summary
- Tuesday a storm moving through to the north may brush us with light rain/snow showers especially to the north/northwest of the lake. Clouds & sun possible between any showers. Highs in the 30s on the mountains and 40s at lake level. Ridgetop winds gusting to 50-60+ mph from the southwest. Snow levels around 7000 ft. - Wednesday through Friday morning we should see sun & clouds with highs in the 30s for the upper elevations and 40 to near 50 at lake level by Friday. Winds still gusting to 40+ mph Wednesday, lighter winds Thursday. Friday afternoon we could see increasing clouds & winds from the next storm approaching. - The next storm is expecting to move in Saturday morning bringing more snow, and then another storm is possible Sunday. These systems look cold enough for snow down below lake level. We could see snow Saturday through Sunday night. Early projections are for 2-day totals of several inches up to a foot at lake level, and 1-2+ feet of snow on the mountains. Highs in the 30s. - The active pattern could continue through mid-April.
Short Term Forecast
The Governors of CA & NV have issued a “Stay at Home” order. The orders state that only travel essential to your work or health is allowed. Here are the links.
Some locals have been exercising in the backcountry. The Sierra Avalanche Center has asked us to share the following:
"As a result of the ski resort closures, some locals are venturing into the backcountry. We prefer people stay at home to relieve the strain on rescue personnel. But if you do go out, please be sure to check the avalanche forecast, which is updated by 7 am daily. The Sierra Avalanche Center would also like to remind ALL backcountry travelers:
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Know Before You Go. Anyone traveling in the backcountry should (1) have working avalanche gear (a transceiver, probe, and shovel) that you have practiced with recently; (2) have taken an avalanche class; and (3) check the daily avalanche forecast.
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Observe ski resort closures. Most ski resorts in the Tahoe area are closed to uphill travel. Please check with individual ski resorts for current policies and conditions.
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Consider the impact of your choices. The Tahoe Nordic Search and Rescue Team recently issued this statement reminding backcountry travelers that any incident requiring a rescue has the potential to strain an already overburdened EMS and hospital system, could expose victims and rescuers to COVID-19, and that rescue efforts could be delayed due to resource and staff shortages."
I will continue to post weather forecasts for informational purposes only, and for the needs expressed by essential personnel.
The Weather:
Not much change to the forecast this morning. We are on the southern edge of the storm track this week which is bringing some clouds, gusty winds, and a few showers north of the lake.
It looks like only a dusting of snow fell overnight near Donner Summit. It's not that could this morning, temperatures are in the up 20s for the upper elevations and upper 30s to start at lake level. Ridgetop winds are gusting from the southwest up to 50+ mph.
Tuesday - Wednesday:
The winds will continue to gust to 50-60+ mph over the ridges today and to 30+ mph at lake level. Then coming down some Wednesday but still gusting to 40+ mph. Highs in the 30s on the mountains and 40s at lake level.
We will likely continue to see sun & clouds with a better chance for some sun to the south of the lake and clouds to the north. We could also see a few more scattered showers north of the lake Tuesday with snow levels rising to around 7000-7500 ft. Wednesday looks drier with a better chance for some sun.
Thursday - Friday:
Thursday the winds may relax into Friday morning. We should see mostly sunny skies as well into Friday morning. Highs in the 30s for the upper elevations and 40s at lake level, approaching 50 degrees on Friday. Friday afternoon we may see increasing clouds and winds ahead of the next storm. Ridgetop wind gusts increasing to 30+ mph.
The Weekend Storms:
We have 2 storms that will move into CA over the weekend. They are not as cold as some of the storms we saw in March, but they look cold enough for all snow to lake level. We still have some differences with timing and total precipitation/snowfall amounts which I'll go through below. But overall we could see a snowy weekend ahead in the Sierra.
The first system is a fast-moving and compact system, but the models are in decent agreement that it moves into northern CA taking a direct aim at the northern Sierra.
Some forecast models show the snow moving in during the early morning hours while others hold off until later in the morning or even midday. It looks like the heaviest precipitation could fall during the day with snow showers continuing into Saturday night. Highs dropping into the 30s. Snow levels starting out around 5500-6000 ft. Saturday, so just below lake level. Then dropping to around 4500-5000 ft. Saturday night.
The GFS model is the wettest this morning with up to 1.5 inches of precipitation and the Euro showing half of that. Some models a little drier. I'd like to see better agreement. Early estimates would be a dusting up to a few inches at lake level, and 3-10 inches on the mountains. If the GFS is right we could see over a foot along the crest.
The second system moves in sometime on Sunday. This storm looks to be larger and will push a cold front through. There are a lot of timing differences on the models. The European and GFS models are in decent agreement that the storm moves in Sunday morning and moves out Monday morning.
The Canadian model moves the storm in later Sunday and has it hanging around for several days as it stalls out over CA. I'm going to assume the GFS scenario for now that the storm moves in Sunday morning and out Monday morning. Highs still in the 30s Sunday and then a cold front moves through Sunday afternoon/evening with the heaviest snow. Snow levels around 5000-5500 ft. during the day and falling below 3000 ft. behind the front.
There are still differences in the total precipitation amounts due to the differences on the models in the timing and track of the 2nd storm. The GFS model has up to 1.8 inches of additional precipitation near the crest. The Canadian model is much drier with only up to 0.5 inches, as it holds off on the storm until Sunday night and lingers it past Monday beyond the forecast window. The European model has up to 1.1 inches.
The total model average for total precipitation west of the lake near the crest for Saturday through Sunday night is 1.5 inches, with good spillover to the east side of the lake. Here is the WPC's blended model through Sunday night.
Snow ratios averaging 12-14:1 on the mountains and 9-10:1 at lake level. The latest GFS model runs show over 3 inches over total precip near the crest which would be over 3 feet of snow over the weekend. Not going there yet. The Canadian model would only have several inches in total. Below is the initial snowfall forecast for the weekend based on the total model average.
This would be a decent amount of snow for a storm in April if the forecast holds. We will continue to fine-tune the details as we get closer and the models start to agree on the timing and precip amounts.
Extended Forecast
The 2nd storm may clear out on Monday with colder air behind the storm. The long-range models suggest we could see a break between systems next Tuesday - Wednesday. But the trough is forecast to remain over the West Coast through mid-month, so the storm door may remain open.
The long-range models show the possibility of another storm for later next week around Thursday - Friday.
The CPC's day 6-10 forecast shows above-average precipitation for CA.
Fantasy Range:
Their 11-15 day forecast, which goes through the 13th, also shows above-average precipitation chances for CA.
Like I mentioned in earlier posts this week, above average for April is not as wet as above average for the winter months, with April's average precipitation almost half of March's average. But overall we could see an active pattern continue with snow this weekend and storms possible every few days through mid-month is the current forecast holds.
The snowfall average for March at the Snow Lab is only 35 inches, so we may have a good start to achieving that the first week of April. March was the snowiest month so far this season. I'll have the final stats in a post the first week of April.
Stay tuned...BA
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About Our Forecaster
Bryan Allegretto
Forecaster
Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.
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