The sunny and mild weather continues for Monday. Highs in the 50s and 40s above 8500 ft.

Rain & Snow Showers:

The posts have been less frequent over the past week, but in the last post on Thursday we talked about possible rain & snow showers for Tuesday-Wednesday from a cut-off low spinning over the Great Basin. The forecast models have been consistent in showing this over the last few days which has increased confidence we could see some showers.

The trough with cooler air is digging south over the Great Basin through Wednesday.

We will see cooler air move in Tuesday with highs dropping into the 40s to around 50 degrees at lake level, and 30s above 8500 ft. Then even colder for Wednesday with highs in the 40s at lake level and 30s above 8000 ft. We will also see some gusty winds Tuesday from the north gusting up to 40+ mph over the ridges at times.

We will likely start both days with mostly-partly sunny skies. Then the warming during the day and rising air combined with colder air moving in aloft and moisture from the cut-off low, we will see clouds start to build and showers start to pop up from late morning through the early evening hours both days.

The best chance for some heavier showers and gusty winds looks to be during the afternoons, especially Tuesday as a cold front moves through. This should be very springlike with breaks of sun between cells of showers.

Snow levels could start around 7500-8000 ft. Tuesday but could drop fast under heavier bands of showers. Snow levels should mostly remain above 7000 ft, but could drop near lake level Tuesday evening. We will likely see a break Tuesday night and then more showers firing up Wednesday before tapering off for good Wednesday evening. Snow levels should stay above 6500-7000 ft. most of Wednesday as well, but heavier showers could drag them lower.

This could be a hit or miss scenario with snow mainly just accumulating on colder surfaces like snow already on the ground, and melting on the warmer surfaces. Not expecting any accumulations at lake level except if we see a heavier shower during the evenings as the sun goes down on colder surfaces only. Above 7000 ft. we could see accumulations on the snow already on the ground, but it becomes wet between showers during the day with the breaks of sun and highs above freezing.

Some models like the NAM & European models show a band of heavier precipitation possibly setting up Tuesday north of the lake. The NAM shows up to an inch of total precipitation.

The range across the rest of the models is fairly consistent at 0.3-0.5 inches, with equal amounts possible on both sides of the lake with the flow from the north. The total model average is around 0.4 inches on the high end over the peaks. Here is a look at the WPC's blended model through Wednesday.

There will be a big range on the mountains if we see heavier showers. Some locations may only see a dusting of snow while some mountains could pick up several inches above 7000 ft. Here is a look at the snowfall forecast using the total model average for total precip and snow levels through Wednesday.

It is possible that a random peak or two pick up higher snowfall amounts if we see a heavier cell sit over them. Keep an eye out if traveling over Mt. Rose with a lesser chance of any impacts over the lower passes, but not impossible under heavier cells. I'll give another snowfall update Tuesday morning.

Thursday - Friday:

High pressure builds back in as the low moves east starting Thursday. Sunny skies return with highs warming into the 50s at lake level and 40s above 8000 ft.

High pressure may continue to build over the West Coast through the weekend and into the week of the 19th.

Highs warming into the 50s for the upper mountains and 60s at lake level. We had 8 mountains close on Sunday, with 7 more planning to close this upcoming Sunday. That will leave the forecasts for skiing to the backcountry, Squaw, & Mammoth starting next Monday.

Fantasy Range:

We are watching the active phase of the MJO in the western Pacific this week forecast to move through the eastern Pacific through the end of April. Also, a strong typhoon forming near the Philippines may get caught up in the westerlies during the last week of April. We will keep an eye on that to see if they could help to shift the pattern and bring in some precipitation during the last week of April.

Some of the long-range ensemble mean runs are starting to show an increase in precipitation during the last week of the month. 

We will keep an eye on that to see if the two mountains still open could see some late-season snow and if we could see some relief from the dry pattern we have been seeing.

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. Be sure to use our OpenSummit site and app throughout the summer for your summer mountain activities. We have switched gears and we are developing new features for OpenSummit that will be coming out through the summer.

Ski Resort Closing Dates: 

Boreal - 4/18

Sugar Bowl - 4/18

Northstar - 4/18

Mt. Rose - 4/18

Diamond Peak - 4/18

Heavenly  - 4/18

Bear Valley - 4/18

Squaw/Alpine - 5/31 (tentative)

Mammoth - 5/31 (tentative)

Mt. Shasta - CLOSED

Tahoe Donner - CLOSED

Homewood - CLOSED

Sierra at Tahoe - CLOSED

Kirkwood - CLOSED

Dodge Ridge - CLOSED

June Mountain - CLOSED

China Peak - CLOSED