It has been taking me awhile to get the posts out recently because I'm spending so much time running through the models.  The details are continuously changing run to run and there are so many different solutions among the different models.  I have run some several times to remember what they are showing.  There is a lot of chaos coming in our weather pattern over the next week and I'm trying to make sense of it.  The good news is that we have something to talk about.

Today and tomorrow are pretty easy as we are still mild and waiting for the first wave of precipitation to arrive.  Then Wednesday night the first wave of very light precip moves through with very high snow levels.  With the center of low pressure staying off the coast most of the precip stays to our West.  Only expect very light rain showers with snow levels falling to around 9000 feet.

Good model agreement on precip amounts for this first wave that should clear out by Thursday.  Here is the GFS total precipitation forecast.

Then we should see a break between waves on Thursday.  So pretty much a non-event Wednesday-Thursday other than clouds and some light showers.  Winds could gust up to 25 mph on the peaks, but overall not that windy for a storm.

The forecast models start to diverge already by Thursday night.  The GFS moves the 2nd wave in Thursday night into Friday as the main low is sitting off the Pacific NW coast.  It brings in light amounts of precip again, but slightly more this time with snow levels lower around 8,0000 feet.  So this time we could see an inch or two of snow above 8,000 feet, with the highest amounts West of the lake.

Here is the GFS total precip forecast by Friday evening as the 2nd round winds down.

The European model is similar in total precipitation amounts, but it is slower with the 2nd wave.  It has the break in the showers lasting through Friday, and then moving back in Friday night into Saturday.  Same situation where we could see an inch or two of snow above 8,000 feet by Saturday afternoon.

For the snowfall forecast it is doubling the amounts because it is adding the GFS amounts for Friday and the European amounts for Saturday.  It is an either or.  That happens on the computer generated forecasts on the mountain pages as well.  We will either get 1-2 inches Friday or Saturday, not both, so cut the total forecast in half.

There are some model runs like the Canadian coming in even wetter for Saturday.  Also, there is some colder air available to move in with this wave.  So we will keep an eye on the total precip and snow level forecast for Friday-Saturday to see if we can't squeeze out a couple extra inches on the upper mountains.

It looks like we could have another short break on Sunday with some cooler air in place

We continue to deal with model disagreement for early next week with the final storm.  The GFS has a slitting trough approaching with a low forming and moving through Southern CA next Wed-Thu missing us, and another low moving inland well to our North.  So the latest GFS run keeps us dry next week now...

The European model has a cut-off low forming much closer to the coast by Monday sending waves of heavier precipitation into Northern CA Monday into Tuesday.  It does eventually track to low into Southern CA like the GFS, but not before it brings even more precipitation.

The Canadian model agrees but the timing is Wed-Thu...

So we will have to watch next week closely.  1-2+ inches of liquid would be much more significant than what we are seeing this week.  The snow levels could be high again, but it depends on the track and how far South a trough moving through to the North could dig.  So we will be watching next week closely.

There is good agreement that another high pressure ridge builds in by Friday the 12th going into that weekend.

Like I mentioned yesterday I don't think it lasts very long this time.  That is showing up with a trough into the Pacific NW during the week of the 15th.

If you are running the GFS you see it has storms lining up into the West Coast starting about the 16th.

Also, if the MJO continues to move through phase 3 in the Indian Ocean and towards 4 we may see a strengthening and extending jet stream across the Pacific towards the West Coast by mid-month.  Here is yesterday's CPC discussion.

"An active MJO over the Indian Ocean during boreal winter is generally one of the more coherent scenarios for yielding a teleconnection response in the Northern Hemisphere. Typical lagged extratropical circulation responses favor enhancement and extension of the jet across the North Pacific in addition to building troughing over Western North America."

Looking at yesterday's European weeklies forecast, it has a trough for the West Coast by the 19th and staying there into mid-February.

This is not a forecast just a look at the possible patterns beyond a week.  The point is that after the next 7 days of active weather we may have a short dry period, but that may be just before Winter finally shows up.  Let's hope...

Stay tuned...BA

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