Snow on the ground – natural & machine made

From late September to early October, the most natural snow has fallen over Alberta, Canada, and Montana and Wyoming in the United States.

This early-season snow cover makes it fun to look at the mountain cams in places like Big Sky, Montana.

When there are no clouds covering the sky, we can also get a view of the snow from weather satellites, which can ‘see’ natural snow on the higher peaks of the northern Rockies.

Elsewhere around the west, temperatures are now cold enough for snowmaking to run almost every night at the highest-elevation mountains in Colorado. The race to open first (usually by late October) will be between Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Keystone, and Copper.

Snow in the Rockies from Mon, Oct 7 – Fri, Oct 11

The forecast for the upcoming week shows one solid storm moving through the northern and central Rockies.

On Monday, October 7th, the storm will first bring snow to northern British Columbia.

Then from Tuesday, October 8th through Friday, October 11th, the storm will push cold air and snow southeast through Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado. The animation below shows the colder-than-average air moving southeast from Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures may run up to 30 degrees below average as the storm passes.

For snowfall, the deeper accumulations should be in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada, south to Montana, Wyoming, and the eastern mountains of Colorado. Average totals will be in the 2-8 inch range and a few forecast models show a few spots topping 10 inches.

This early-season snow will generally melt, though locations that are at a higher elevation, a higher latitude, and/or north-facing may hold on to this snow.

Track the storm over the next few days by going to our map of the deepest forecasts during the next week.

Outlook for Mon, Oct 14 – Fri, Oct 18

Following the storm on October 7-11, there is no clear signal for the days heading into mid-October. Most models show cooler weather and potential storminess in the northwest and the northeast, though I have no confidence in the details.

Also, we do not know if the potential storminess over the northwest will push into the northern and central Rockies, or if it’ll fizzle out and/or stay too far to the north.

This uncertainty in the forecast is standard for an outlook that is 7-12 days away, and we'll just have to wait at least another few days to see what's in store for mid-October.

Thanks so much for reading, and stay tuned for the next update on Monday, October 14th.

JOEL GRATZ

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