Major Pattern Change Ahead

A warm and dry October has left most of the peaks snow-free out West, save for some high-elevation snowfall across Arizona and New Mexico a few days ago. Meanwhile, the Midwest and the East have seen an early taste of winter this week thanks to an impressive cold blast by mid-October standards.

Parts of the Upper Midwest, especially the UP of Michigan, received over a foot of snowfall early this week and there were even reports of folks getting out and making some turns. The Central Appalachians were dusted with snow as well.

Looking ahead, the pattern will flip this weekend and the West will see its first major cold snap with widespread snowfall as a storm arrives from the Gulf of Alaska.

This first storm will signal the start of a pattern change in which cold and stormy conditions will persist across the West heading into late October. Check out our 10-Day Powder Finder!

Forecast for Wed 10/19 – Thu 10/20:

A cold and unsettled pattern will persist across the East and the Midwest during this period with additional snow and rain showers expected across the lake effect zones. The Central Appalachians will continue to see high-elevation snow showers as well, favoring West Virginia the most.

Most of the West will remain warm and dry while Southeast Alaska continues to get pounded with heavy snow. A disturbance will also bring some light snow to the Northern Canadian Rockies and Cariboo Mountains near the BC/Alberta border. 

Forecast for Fri 10/21 – Sat 10/22:

The East will start to warm up and dry out during this period, while the action gets underway out West. A strong storm containing much colder air will begin to impact Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest on Friday with heavy mountain snow and lowering snow levels, before spreading into the Northern Rockies and Northern Utah on Saturday. Tahoe could see a little bit of snow on Saturday as well.

Forecast for Sun 10/23 – Mon 10/24:

The focus of heavy snowfall will shift into the Central Rockies on Sunday with significant snow totals possible across Utah and Colorado. The Central Rockies should see a bit of a break on Monday (light snow showers still possible), while the next storm will impact the Northwest on Sunday night and Monday with heavy snow possible across BC, Washington, and Northern Idaho/Montana.

Outlook for Tue 10/25 – Sat 10/29:

Temperatures will be below-average across the West for all of next week and an active storm track is expected to continue with additional shots of snow. The Northwest and the Northern/Central Rockies look to be the most favored for snowfall in this pattern, but Tahoe could get in on the action at times as well.

The East will see a much warmer pattern next week with fall conditions resuming following this week's cold snap.

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Friday (10/21).

ALAN SMITH

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