A dry start to the President's weekend will precede a strong storm system that will bring snowfall to the mountains of Northern Utah on Sunday and Monday.
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Short Term Forecast
There really isn't too much new to talk about that I haven't already discussed in previous forecasts. The difference today is that now we have the short-range model guidance available to us. We have a weak disturbance passing to our north today. We could see some clouds and breezes from this today, but I don't expect any snowfall. Saturday will be mostly dry, but clouds will be increasing throughout the day ahead of the system which arrives Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Snow on Sunday looks like a good bet for the high elevations (rain in the lower valleys). A good chance that Sunday is a day that gets better throughout the day as the snow accumulates. The NAM map shows healthy totals for the mountains of Northern Utah:
And if we look at this graphically for the Upper Cottonwoods:
I think this is slightly underdone... If we check out the SREF members we can see a mean of almost 1.5" of liquid:
If that were to fall at 12:1 ratios, that would equate to about 18" of snow. Overall I think the forecast I gave yesterday of 10-20" by late Monday seems reasonable. Favored areas like the Cottonwoods could be at the higher end of that range, while less favored areas like Park City and resorts with less elevation could be on the lower end.
While this a decent storm, remember, this may be the busiest ski weekend of the year. Traffic and crowds are a given. Please keep that in mind if you choose to try to get some powder this weekend.
We should clear out by Tuesday. After which we could see a bit of a closed off low bring the threat of some precip to mainly southern Utah middle of next week. Models are still all over the place with this feature so confidence is very low. It does look like we should have a break in the main storm action for a bit. The Euro tries to drop another system into the area sometime around the 24th of February...
Evan | OpenSnow
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