Summary
A disorganized storm will pass through the region Sunday night into Monday morning with modest snowfall amounts. A break for several days before we see chances for snow return next weekend.
Short Term Forecast
Winds will be gusty today ahead of a system that will bring snow to northern Utah tonight into Monday morning. Not going to be as windy as Thursday of last week, but still some strong breezes especially up high. Skies will remain mostly cloudy today.
The front and associated precip will arrive late evening from north to south. Here, you can see the OpenSnow HRRR forecast radar showing a well-defined front over the Northern Wasatch at 10pm:
Four hours later, at 2am, that front has moved south but perhaps loses some of its strength:
After that, there are some indications that it somewhat stalls over the southern/central Wasatch where we may see several hours of snowfall through the morning hours. Here's the same view at 7am Monday morning:
This is not heavy precip, but it could be 5-8 hours of light to moderate snowfall and totals could add up. The NBM is still pretty modest in its totals from this storm:
Generally, when I look at individual models and ensemble plumes, I'm thinking the high elevations will receive 0.4-0.8" of liquid. At 10:1 ratios, that's still just 4-8" of snow. I do think that the upper Cottonwood Canyons could do a bit better IF that area of snow stalls for a bit longer. Even then, maybe we could push toward the 10-12" amount if everything goes right, but personally, I'm choosing to lower my expectations for now.
Turns on Monday should be creamy, but probably not overly deep.
Extended Forecast
We are going to have a mostly quiet week from late Monday through Friday. Temps should remain generally cool -- overall, good ski weather for exploring and ripping groomers.
Our next chance for snow will be next weekend (Dec 10-11). Models have a weakening system moving across the northern Great Basin into Utah. How much strength and moisture this system retains is critical in determining how much snow we may get. Models have anywhere from a few inches of refresh to a halfway decent storm right now. I'll give models another day before I start speculating more.
Then, it looks like we could have another chance for a storm sometime around December 14. Way too early for anything on this other than saying it *could* happen.
Evan | OpenSnow
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