November 2024 started with dry and warm weather. Fortunately, winter has arrived since Thanksgiving, bringing cold and snowy weather to finish the month.

At the start of December, we will continue to see below-normal temperatures that have a 30-50% chance of continuing through the month. The precipitation pattern in December will favor lake effect snow around the Great Lakes and drier-than-normal conditions along the coast from Florida to Massachusetts. Read on to learn more about the weather in November and the December forecast.

November 2024 Review:

We are reversing the old saying from the previous month, October, that November started like a lamb and ended like a lion. We saw dry and warm conditions dominant the first half of the month as an upper-level ridge with an associated high-pressure system remained semi-stationary over the Eastern US.

Fortunately, since Thanksgiving, the weather pattern has changed with favorable conditions for snow and cold air throughout the East that will continue into December. There was very little to no snow at the beginning of November but most resorts have now seen several inches of snow. 

Lake effect snow has been the big story in the last few days of November but even for resorts that have not seen snow, snowmaking has returned and bases are starting to build! Check out the OpenSnow season snow depth map from October through November 2024. 

Temperatures during November were above-normal throughout the East. The last week of cold temperatures since Thanksgiving did not affect the monthly average temperature across the East.

Precipitation was mixed during November and areas through the Appalachian Mountains and to the west saw above-normal to normal precipitation. Areas east of the Appalachian Mountains to the coast saw below-normal to normal precipitation.

December 2024 Outlook:

The outlook for November shows a 30-50% chance of below-normal temperatures. Northwest flow will be the dominant weather to start in December, which will bring in cold air from Canada. This pattern has occurred the last week of November and will continue to bring cold air into the East.

The northwest flow that will bring a 30-50% chance of below-normal temperatures will bring favorable conditions for lake effect snow in December. This brings a 30-40% chance of above-normal precipitation to areas near the Great Lakes. 

Coastal locations in the East will see a 30-40% chance of below-normal precipitation due to the northwest flow weather pattern. Areas in between for many locations in the East have an equal chance of above and below-normal precipitation during December.

 

Winter 2024-2025 Preview:

The Mid-Atlantic 2024-2025 Winter Preview has been published with the Mid-Atlantic and New England Daily Snows in full swing. We will see a weak La Niña this winter, which has a slight favorability for above-normal snowfall and below-normal temperatures. These weak La Niña winters can also bring strong variability so it is difficult to have confidence in an above-normal, normal, or below-normal snowfall this winter...

Here is also a look at the NOAA 2024-2025 Winter Preview.

Tropical Outlook:

The tropics are now inactive and we will close this section until May or June of 2025. 

• There were 18 named storms, 11 of which became hurricanes, and 5 of those were major hurricanes (category 3 or greater).
• This climatological average (1991-2020) is 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
• Hurricane Beryl and Hurricane Milton became category 5 hurricanes.
• Hurricane Helene was a category 3 storm and brought devastating flooding to the Southeast US.

 Check out the map below of the Atlantic Basin 2024 tropical cyclone season.

• Map courtesy of Brian McNoldy. Read his blog here for more details on the hurricane season.

Fire and Smoke Outlook:

We saw increased wildfire activity in November due to dry and warm weather. This caused several wildfires in the Northeast with unusually high activity! Since colder weather has moved into the East, wildfire activity has reduced and we will see limited potential in December.

The exception to this will be the Southeast US. Above-normal temperatures and drier-than-normal conditions are leading to this enhanced risk of wildfires in December. 

Below is a look at the wildfire potential across the US in December 2024.

Happy December and enjoy the start of the ski season. I will have the next monthly review at the start of January.

Zach Butler