Europe Daily Snow
By Luke Stone, Forecaster Posted 10 days ago February 13, 2024
Some snow showers will be possible at times this week but accumulations will be minimal. For the most part, conditions will be dry and warm. A stronger, but not major, storm is possible later in the weekend still looking to favor the eastern Alps. The ensembles are still hinting at a more favorable pattern starting around the 24th.
Short Term Forecast
There's not a whole lot of excitement in the forecast for the next ten days. Some periods of snow showers and a round of light/moderate snow later this weekend are possible, but accumulations look minor. There's still time for the weekend storm to trend stronger, but the latest guidance shows accumulations coming in under 20 cms.
The period will be dominated by ridging, with just weak waves of energy bringing showers and light/moderate snow this weekend. The early part of next week looks mostly dry as well.
Attention shifts to a possible pattern change later in the month, around the 24th. The long-range models have been showing this possibility for several days now, with a strong upper-level area of low pressure developing over northern/central Europe. It's difficult to gain too much insight into what kind of storms this could bring and where. The main takeaway is that generally speaking, this is a more favorable setup for strong and cold storms in the Alps.
Below you can see the solid agreement in the ensembles around the last week of the month.
Although snow totals 12+ days out aren't reliable at all, the 30+ cms both the American and European ensembles are showing at least indicate the potential for a stronger storm during this time.
And finally, below is a figure that shows the probability of snow greater than 30 cms during this time. Both models show a 90% chance of 30 cms or more, which is a positive sign.
We'll have to keep an eye on this period toward the end of the month and hope that this storm stays in the forecast.
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