New England Daily Snow

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By Jay Cordeira, Meteorologist Posted 1 year ago December 2, 2022

Rain is in the forecast for Saturday

Summary

Our next storm arrives on Saturday with rain likely during the day. More rain is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday next week with our next possible shot at snow not likely until Dec 11-12.

Short Term Forecast

Upslope snow showers and squalls delivered on Thursday with some resorts highlighting ~3-5" of new snow across central and northern Vermont. Jay Peak was boasting about a wind-blown ~2-5" yesterday in their snow report midday and Killington had 4" of new snow in their afternoon update. Sugarbush and Gore (NY) both checked in with 1" new on Thursday afternoon.

How'd we do? The Wednesday Daily Snow and OpenSnow Blends all had 1-2" in their forecast and I highlighted the potential for 3-5" above 4000 feet in the Whites. Mt. Washington only reported 1.1" of new snow. The NAM model was calling for 10" of new snow in spots in Vermont which was clearly over done, but a bit more in the right direction. The 3-5" was a good call, just in the wrong spot and I should have taken a closer  look at potential for higher snows in Vermont. 

Friday is going to feature more sunshine than clouds with seasonable temperatures increasing through the 20s and into the low 30s by evening. Expect resorts to continue to take advantage of the cooler weather to make snow and stave off the onslaught of rain events. 

NAM model forecast for 7AM-7PM Saturday.

Speaking of rain, our next storm arrives on Saturday and will bring another round of warm temperatures and rain to the region. Rain is likely to breakout on Saturday morning across eastern New York and Vermont by 7AM and clear out of Maine by 7PM. Most areas see light-to-moderate rain, drizzle, and showers for about 6 hours between once it starts and ends -- mostly a morning event for Vermont and mostly an afternoon event for Maine. Some orographic enhancement could lead to upwards of another inch of rain in the Greens and Whites on strong south-southwest winds blowing 30-40 mph with higher gusts ahead of the midday cold front. As expected, back-side snows are non-existent with only 0-1" now in the OpenSnow blend. 

Extended Forecast

Northwest winds bring colder temperatures back to the region on Sunday with slope side temperatures in the 10s at high elevations and 20s at bases. A few flakes in northern Vermont are not out of the question on Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure slides offshore on Monday and temperatures moderate through the 20s and into the lower 30s. Resorts will likely once again take advantage of the cooler weather to make snow ahead of our next, you guessed it, rain storm on Tuesday.

ECMWF model forecast for next Tuesday (Dec 6). 

The Tuesday storm will be a bit colder than our recent storms, but likely still feature mostly rain across the region. Depending on timing, we could see a bit of a wintry mix (e.g., snow/sleet/freezing rain) at the onset very early Tuesday before daybreak, but otherwise I expect any frozen precipitation to transition to light rain throughout the day on Tuesday. Definitely not a washout. Just annoying.

After a quick break on Wednesday (Dec 7), the ECMWF model is suggesting another shot at light rain on Wednesday night with rain showers persisting through next Thursday (Dec 8). Super. The GFS model is wetter and delivers nearly continuous rain and/or rain showers from Tuesday through Wednesday night. Both models go dry through next weekend with the next potential storm arriving Sunday/Monday Dec 11/12. 

The extended range forecast has been waffling a bit this week. We're still expecting a large ridge of warm air to block over Greenland, which is usually a harbinger for cold weather and storms over the East. Our companion ridge over Alaska is not much of a ridge anymore. It's still a bit warmer than normal, but not as amplified. As a result, we're seeing less cold air spill down over the central US and flatter (more zonal) flow.

ECMWF ensemble grid for 24-hour snowfalls in Central Vermont.

What does this mean? A storm or two is not out of the question in this scenario, but the cold air may not be there for a big event. In other words, the dice are not loaded, but we could still throw snake eyes if we're lucky. The ECMWF ensemble grid is pointing toward increased (snow) storm activity in next week Monday through Thursday (Dec 12-15) with broad consistency for perhaps something but widespread uncertainty in what exactly that something will be. 

The next update will be posted over the weekend, likely on Sunday.

-Dr. Jay, New England Daily Snow

About Our Forecaster

Jay Cordeira

Meteorologist

Jay Cordeira is an all-around outdoor enthusiast living and working among the lakes and mountains in New England. When he’s not in the classroom teaching the next generation of meteorologists, you can find him on the trails, rivers, lakes, slabs, and backcountry of the White Mountains.

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