A few changes to the forecast. One is to increase winds for Tuesday and the other is to pull back the snowfall forecast for Monday night. 

This morning (Saturday) we have strong ridgetop winds as expected, gusting to 70+ mph. That is blowing around the light snow that has been falling on the west side of the lake. Snow showers moved in along the crest around midnight and continue this morning. It's cold out with temperatures only in the 20s.

Saturday:

The scattered snow showers are expected to continue through the day before ending by this evening. The winds are expected to come down later this morning, and only gusting to 45+ mph through the afternoon over the ridges. That should allow some closed lifts to open.

We were only expecting a dusting to an inch on the east side of the lake and 1-3 inches on the west side. The reports this morning from the ski resorts already show 1-3 inches on the west side down to Sierra, with a dusting on the east side. 

We could see an additional dusting on the east side today and another 1-2 inches on the west side. It stays cold with highs in the 20s in the upper elevations and 30s for lake level.

Winds:

Before I get into the forecast for the next few storms I just want to get the winds and temperatures out of the way.

For Sunday the winds should continue to gust to 45+ mph from the southwest over the ridges. Then they increase to 50+ mph for Monday, borderline for affecting any upper mountain wind-exposed lifts. Then for Tuesday, we are expecting strong winds gusting to 70+ mph from the southwest through the day. That is likely to keep some upper mountain lifts closed. 

That will be important to note for Tuesday as it will be a fresh powder day but you may not be able to access the upper mountain at some mountains. Then for Wednesday, we could see lighter winds in the morning but increasing to 50-60+ mph in the afternoon ahead of the next storm Then windy again for Thursday during the storm.

Temperatures:

Temperatures throughout the week stay cold with highs in the 20s for the upper elevations and 30s at lake level throughout the week. That will keep the snow levels low and snown ratios high throughout the week. So each storm should bring us drier powdery snow.

Sunday Night - Monday Storm:

For Sunday we should see a break with some sun in the morning and increasing clouds in the afternoon. 

The next system could push in more snow showers by Sunday evening and overnight. The latest model runs show the snow showers ending Monday morning. So we may see a break Monday through the afternoon with a few peeks of sun possible. 

This system is similar to today's storm where we don't have much moisture available and are catching the southern edge of the storm. Total precipitation amounts on the latest model runs show 1-2 tenths of an inch of total precipitation on the west side of the lake and less for the east side. The GFS & NAM models show up to 3 tenths along the crest.

It's cold with high snow ratios of 12:1 at lake level and 15;1 for the upper mountains. That could squeeze out 1-2 inches of fluffy powder on the east side of the lake, and 2-4 inches for the west side.

Monday Night - Tuesday Storm:

The forecast models had 24 hours of trending wetter with this storm as of yesterday morning. This morning they now have 24 hours of trending drier. The system is not pulling in as much moisture on the latest model runs. Not as dry as 2 days ago but nowhere near as wet as the models were showing yesterday morning. 

The other trend with this storm, similar to the Sunday night storm, is to bring in most of the snow Monday night into Tuesday morning. We could see a break for Tuesday afternoon. This is another cold storm with snow levels down to around 4000 ft. and high snow ratios. That will help to boost snowfall from the precipitation we do see.

The latest model runs have a spread from around 0.5 to 0.85 inches of total precipitation near the crest, and lesser amounts east across the basin. The GFS/European model average used for the snowfall forecast is around 0.65 inches. Here is a look at the WPC model for total precipitation from Saturday through Tuesday.

Here is the updated snowfall forecast for Monday night into Tuesday morning based on the latest model runs.

Wednesday Night Thursday Night Storm:

We should see a break during the day Wednesday. With the winds only gusting 35-45 mph it may be the best window for skiing We may see the sun peek out in the morning and then increasing clouds and winds in the afternoon as the next storm approaches.

We have been watching the pattern forecast for this Wednesday - Friday for over a week now. If the forecast holds through Friday, the long-range models did a great job 2 weeks out. The trough over the West is forecast to shift off the coast by Wednesday.

That is the perfect setup for a cold storm to dig down the coast and to pull in more moisture than the storms we have been seeing. The latest trend on the models is for the storm to push into Northern CA Wednesday night with heavy snow into Thursday, and snow showers lingering into Thursday night. The latest trend is to clear us out on Friday which could be perfect timing for people coming up for the holiday weekend.

I don't like to make snowfall forecasts out more than 5 days. We are right on the edge of that this morning. So I'll wait to make the initial forecast until Sunday morning. This would be another cold storm with low snow levels and high snow ratios. We will have to see how much moisture this system can bring. The models have been all over the place. The latest model runs have pulled back a little with around 1-2 inches of precipitation, but they could increase again as we get closer.

Here is a look at the WPC's model forecast for total precipitation over the next 7 days.

We will continue to track this storm and look more at snowfall details starting tomorrow.

We may clear out on Friday with drier weather through MLK weekend. The GFS and Canadian models show high-pressure building in for the weekend and into the week of the 20th.

The European model tries to hold onto the trough a bit longer into next Saturday and tries to push a final storm in. I'm not buying that right now, but we will keep an eye on it.

All of the models show the pattern we have seen the last few weeks flipping from a negative PNA pattern to a positive PNA pattern starting next weekend.

That would be a warmer and drier pattern for the West Coast. The question will be how long does it last. The MJO is strengthening over the Maritime Continent region in phase 4 heading to phases 5-6-7 over the next 2 weeks. Those are dry phases for CA. But if it continues through phases 7-8 from the Western Pacific through the Central Pacific we could see it help to feed the jet stream and possibly push storms into CA towards the end of the month.

The GFS and Canadian ensembles are starting to hint at this pattern.

If not we may stay in drier pattern until February. The CFSv2 show below-average precipitation for CA through the end of the month, and then a chance for average precipitation the first week of February.  Let's get through the storms over the next 6 days, and then we will have plenty of time to play with the long-range forecasts.

Stay tuned...BA

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